000 AGXX40 KNHC 020711 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST WED FEB 02 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IS REFLECTING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 29N54W TO 33N59W ON THE 00Z UNIFIED SURFACE ANALYSIS. TSTMS ARE NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND SHIP KSPH AS WELL AS THE 0052Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRM 20 KT WINDS AT THE SURFACE ON THE N EDGE OF THE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY BREAK APART OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES S INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING DECOUPLES AND MOVES OFF TO THE W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH THE SYSTEM BY THU. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON MOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE NE FL COAST LATE WED AND ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY DROP BELOW 20 KT BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. THE 00Z UKMET AND GFS AGREE ON INCREASING WINDS ABOVE 20 KT AGAIN W OF THE FRONT BY THU EVENING WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS WEAKER. FROM THU INTO FRI...THE ECMWF BECOMES ONE OF THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS WITH THE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE NE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SE CONUS AND LIFT THIS FRONT NORTHWARD. SEE THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. GENERAL PREFERENCE IS TOWARD THE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER VERSION OF THE GFS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WITH WINDS IN THE MORNING HOURS TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST COMING LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. ALL OF THE MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THAT PREVENTS THE FRONT FROM MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND CMC NOW CARRYING A NEW TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THAT TIME THAT CAUSES RIDGING ALOFT TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH STALLS AND THEN BACKS THE FRONT UP OVER THE GULF AND NEVER ALLOWS IT TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET ALL SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THE LAST OFFSHORE PACKAGE. HOWEVER...WILL HOLD WINDS BELOW 20 KT ON SUN TO STAY IN LINE WITH THE 00Z GFS. GULF OF MEXICO... THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW AND IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND 00Z GEFS MEANS THAN THE WEAKER 00Z ECMWF. THE 00Z GFS WILL BE USED PRIMARILY FOR THE FORECAST...BUT WILL BE SLOWED DOWN A BIT BY LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS SUGGESTED BY THE PMDHMD. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER TO HOIST THE GALE FLAG IN THE SW GULF ON FRI AS THE 00Z GFS SUGGESTS. THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NE MEXICO OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE UKMET...WHICH IS A DEEP OUTLIER WITH THE LOW CENTER...HAS A GALE AND THE CMC...WHICH IS A WESTERN OUTLIER...HAS A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO THE SW OF THE LOW FRI. THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS UP TO AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS AT 12Z FRI. HOWEVER...THE 21Z SREF SHOWS A ZERO PERCENT CHANCE. GIVE THE GENERAL PREFERENCE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND THE SUPPORT OF THE 00Z GEFS...WILL BEGIN TO MENTION GALES FOR FRI ALONG THE NE COAST OF MEXICO. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER