000 AGXX40 KNHC 281929 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF S TEXAS MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE GULF. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE ERN U.S. HAS MOVED ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE GULF OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING BRINGING COOL AND VERY DRY AIR AND W-NW WINDS NEAR 15 KT FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE W CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA...WITH SEAS TO 4 FT. AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SAT MORNING MODERATE RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE FAR WRN GULF AND THEN EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF THE W HALF TO MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW BY SAT NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO NEAR THE W CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE VORT CENTER OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING E-NE ACROSS FROM NW MEXICO AND TEXAS AND TO COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SUN NIGHT...ALLOWING A SFC LOW CENTER TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS. THE LOW DISSIPATES WHILE THE FRONT STALLS OVER E TEXAS THEN DRIFTS BACK TO THE NW IN ADVANCE OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT S/W MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO N TEXAS TUE AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT AFTER SIGNIFICANT SPREAD THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD LINGERING BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NE TO THE TN VALLEY TUE NIGHT. FRESH SE TO S RETURN FLOW WILL ENVELOPE MOST OF THE GULF AHEAD OF THIS NEW COLD FRONT TUE...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS. COLD FONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY 00Z WED AND MOVE SE...REACHING FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 00Z THU...WITH STRONG NLY FLOW 25 TO 30 KT AND POSSIBILITY OF GALES ALONG THE GULF COASTS OF S TEXAS AND MEXICO. GFS MAINTAINS SUFFICIENT RIDGING SE OF FRONT TO BLOCK IT FRONT MOVING INTO SE GULF LATE THU WHILE EUROPEAN MODELS BOTH BLAST FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE GULF BY 00Z FRI. AT THIS TIME I WOULD FAVOR THE EUROPEAN CONSENSUS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... AREAS OF HIGH PRES MIGRATING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE BASIN WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGER WINDS WILL PERSIST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST WITH SEAS THERE BUILDING 10 TO 12 FT. WINDS WILL VEER E TO SE WINDS AND INCREASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT INTO TUE...AS LOW PRES DIGS INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT WITH FRESH NE SWELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC MAINLY S OF 19N...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGER WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND EXPOSED CARIB PASSAGES WITH SWELL ENERGY GENERATED FROM E ATLC GALE...ACCOMPANIED BY COOL AND STABLE BACK DOOR COLD AIR. SW NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING THE AREA DRIFTED NW OVERNIGHT E OF THE BAHAMAS BUT HAS SINCE BEGUN TO MOVE SE AS ERN U.S. TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED WITH REINFORCING AND BENIGN FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NW PORTIONS. UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT WILL PUSH BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES EWD NEXT 48 HOURS AND DRAG THE DISSIPATING SW TAIL OF THE FIRST FRONT THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY SAT MORNING BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WEAK AND NEARLY STATIONARY SHEAR LINE. HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLC SAT NIGHT INTO SUN YIELDING NELY FLOW TO THE SE OF THE ASSOCIATED WEAK RIDGE...AND E TO SE FLOW TO THE SE OF THE DYING FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NEAR 26N65W TO SE BAHAMAS. LONG PERIOD NW TO N SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WATER E OF 70W THROUGH SAT MORNING BEFORE FADING QUICKLY. WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER CURRENTLY ARE N OF 29-30N AND E OF 70W JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND LINGERING COLD FRONT BUT WILL EXIT NE PORTIONS WITHIN 36 HOURS. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING