000 AGXX40 KNHC 280710 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 208 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF SLOWLY MIGRATES INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND A LOW PRES AREA MOVING THROUGH TEXAS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM NW MEXICO TO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SUN NIGHT...ALLOWING THE LOW CENTER AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS. THE LOW DISSIPATES AND FRONT STALLS OVER THE TEXAS COAST SUN NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DIMINISH. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE LOW PRES FORMING OVER S TEXAS MON INTO TUE AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE ROCKIES...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN TO INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF STARTING MON. THE LOW PRES SHIFTS NE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUE. A TRAILING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TEXAS INTO THE NW GULF LATE TUE NIGHT...WITH FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...STRONG TO POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... AREAS OF HIGH PRES MIGRATING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE BASIN WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGER WINDS WILL PERSIST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. E TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MON INTO TUE...AS LOW PRES DIGS INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT WITH FRESH NE SWELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC MAINLY S OF 19N...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGER WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. SW NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A WEAK AND STALLING FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N65W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A 0230Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH W TO NW FLOW N OF 29N W OF 75W...LIKELY DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. BUOY READING CONFIRM THE WAVEWATCH III INITIALIZATION SHOWING SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL N OF 27 TO THE NE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THIS LARGER SWELL WILL MOVE E OF 65W THROUGH SAT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FRI AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLC...PROVIDING A REINFORCING SHOT TO THE FRONT AND ALLOWING FRESH FLOW BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 27N BY LATE FRI. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA FRI AND SAT...AND DISSIPATES BY LATE SUN. WINDS DIMINISH SAT THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA N OF 27N. E TO SE FLOW INCREASES TUE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TO THE NE FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND LOW PRES MIGRATING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH STATES. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN