000 AGXX40 KNHC 171935 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1010 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 29N84W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NE OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND A TROUGH EXTENDING SW OF THE LOW TO THE NW YUCATAN COAST. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SE GULF AND INTO S FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING (REFER TO STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICES AND SPC). RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10-15 KT BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE TROUGH AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE LOW WILL PUSH NE OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WHILE THE TRAILING TROUGH LINGERS THROUGH DAYBREAK TUE. A 1012 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS IN THE NW GULF JUST S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA NEAR 29N93W WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 24N95W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 90-120 NM E OF THE FRONT. A 1532 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED SW 15 KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NW 15 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO LOUISIANA THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATING OVER THE GULF LATER TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP BY EARLY TUE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW GULF BY TUE AFTERNOON REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO 24N95W EARLY TUE EVENING THEN FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO 24N93W EARLY WED MORNING MOVING E OF THE AREA BY WED EVENING. EXPECT A BRIEF SURGE OF 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RETURNS AGAIN WED NIGHT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER...BUT MUCH STRONGER...COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS THU EVENING...FROM APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY FRI MORNING...THEN E OF THE AREA FRI EVENING. 12 UTC ENSEMBLES INDICATE A 30% PROBABILITY OF GALES BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG SE TEXAS/NE MEXICO WITH EARLIER SREF GUIDANCE INDICATING A 20% PROBABILITY FROM 06-12 UTC FRI ALTHOUGH WILL CAP WINDS AT 30 KT FOR NOW BEING DAY 4-5. BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 20-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT LATE FRI. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW SAT FINALLY BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES EXIST FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS SUPPORTED BY A 1352 UTC ASCAT PASS AND MORE RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS WITH STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS NE OF THE AREA. 30 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT...STRONGEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD REACHING 11 FT BY TUE NIGHT IN THE CARIBBEAN AND 13 FT IN THE E PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. MEANWHILE E-SE 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT FARTHER TO THE NE ON THU ALLOWING FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH THROUGH SAT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5-7 FT FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI NIGHT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO N CENTRAL HONDURAS BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF SPURT OF NW-N 15-20 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BEHIND THE FRONT. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... A FRONTAL TROUGH IS IN THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA FROM NEAR 31N61W TO 25N70W AS CAPTURED BY A 1350 UTC ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED N WINDS OF 10-15 KT...TO 20 KT RIGHT ALONG 31N...BEHIND IT AND 10-15 KT E-SE WINDS S OF IT TO THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NE OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A STATIONARY FRONT CLIPS THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE WATERS WITH STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF IT FROM SE FLORIDA NE ACROSS THAT AREA. ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AN EARLIER POSSIBLE TORNADO MOVING OFFSHORE IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE CANAVERAL (REFER TO STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICES AND SPC). AN ASSOCIATED 1010 MB LOW IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION LATE THIS EVENING DRAGGING A FRONTAL TROUGH INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N79W TO CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY TUE MORNING QUICKLY MOVING NE OF THE AREA TUE EVENING. SE-S 20-25 KT WINDS AREA CURRENTLY N OF 23N AND W OF 74W AND THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD NE WHILE TURNING MORE S-SW TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. BRIEF RIDGING SETS UP ALONG 24N TUE NIGHT WITH SW WINDS INCREASING OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE NEXT FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N78W TO S CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY WED MORNING THEN FROM NEAR 31N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WED EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING N OF THE AREA (A BRIEF EPISODE OF 20-25 KT SW WINDS AHEAD OF SHIFTING TO W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT STILL EXPECTED N OF 27N. HIGH PRES FORMS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY EARLY THU MORNING THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRI MORNING AS YET ANOTHER...AND STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. SW WINDS INCREASE BACK TO 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N74W TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA FRI EVENING THEN FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SAT EVENING. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY