000 AGXX40 KNHC 161838 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EST SUN JAN 16 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COMPLEX AND MESSY WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. CURRENTLY A WEAK TROUGH IS LOCATED IN THE MIDDLE GULF EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM NEAR 27N87W TO JUST N OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COVER THE MIDDLE GULF SPREADING E INTO THE E GULF WATERS AND TOWARD FLORIDA. BUOY OBSERVATIONS REPORT NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT NW OF THE TROUGH AND E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS SE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE MOVING INLAND OVER FLORIDA BY MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE 1014 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED OVER TEXAS JUST E OF AUSTIN WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING S-SW OF THE LOW TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS PERSIST OVER THE W GULF AND ALSO INLAND OVER E TEXAS AND W LOUISIANA. SE-S WINDS OF 15-20 KT ALONG WITH 5-7 FT SEAS ARE IN THE NW GULF W OF 94W. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO NEAR 29N94W BY MON MORNING WITH THE TRAILING FRONTAL TROUGH STRETCHING TO NEAR 24N95W. EXPECT A SMALL AREA OF 15-20 KT WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MAINLY 10-15 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE LOW LIFTS NE OF THE AREA MON NIGHT WHILE THE FRONTAL TROUGH STALLS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES BY EARLY TUE. RIDGING FORMS ALONG 23N/24N TUE EXTENDING INTO THE GULF FROM THE SW N ATLC WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP IN THE W GULF. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF TUE EVENING QUICKLY MOVING E AND EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE N CENTRAL WATERS BY WED MORNING WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WED AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. RETURN FLOW RETURNS LATE WED NIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER...BUT STRONGER...COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE OF TEXAS THU NIGHT WITH A SURGE OF 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND IT AND SEAS BUILDING TO UP TO 8 FT AS AGREED UPON BY BOTH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF. THE FRONT WILL RACE TO THE E-SE REACHING FROM NEAR APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO THE NW YUCATAN COAST BY FRI EVENING. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 29N55W SW-W TO THE SE BAHAMAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING NW OF THE WARM FRONT. A 1410 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED PERSISTENT NE 20 KT WINDS WITHIN 120-150 NM NW OF THE WARM FRONT. E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 5-8 FT IN NE SWELL EXIST SE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT N DISSIPATING MON AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A COASTAL TROUGH IS IN THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA REACHING FROM NEAR 31N76W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE VICINITY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT THEN WILL MERGE WITH A TROUGH THAT WILL ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SE-S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE GULF TROUGH MON NIGHT PUSHING NE OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION TUE EVENING REACHING FROM NEAR 31N72W TO THE SE BAHAMAS WED AFTERNOON MOVING E OF THE AREA BY THU AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. RIDGING SETS UP ALONG 27N/28N LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING ONCE AGAIN OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST LATE FRI AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER FRONT WHICH WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A WEAK SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM SE CUBA ACROSS JAMAICA TO THE SE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS. BUOY AND LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NE-E WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10-15 KT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS THE SHEAR LINE HAS WEAKENED. EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT AND SEAS OF MAINLY 3-6 FT WILL PERSIST IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A 1414 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED NE-E TRADES OF 15-20 KT N OF 15N IN THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN WITH 20-25 KT WINDS S OF 15N WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE AREA OF STRONGER TRADES WILL EXPAND TO THE ENTIRE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH WED AND WILL INCREASE TO UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS. AS A RESULT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT IN E SWELL WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS IN THE AREA OF 30 KT WINDS. TRADES WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 15-20 KT THU AND FRI AS THE HIGH RETREATS NE AND WEAKENS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...FRESHENING TRADES WILL MAINTAIN SEAS OF 9-12 FT SEAS IN MAINLY NE/E SWELL (WITH SECONDARY NW SWELL). TRADES AND SEAS WILL WEAKEN/SUBSIDE LATE WED THROUGH FRI AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH WEAKENS AND IS SHUNTED E BY A SW N ATLC FRONTAL SYSTEM. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY