000 AGXX40 KNHC 130715 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST THU JAN 13 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... THE REINVIGORATED COLD FRONT LIES FROM 31N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 06Z. 2 ASCAT PASSES AND A WINDSAT PASS FROM BETWEEN 2330Z-0300Z SHOW 20 TO 25 KT WINDS W OF FRONT FRONT N OF 29N AS WELL AS E OF 76W. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER FORECAST WATERS...STALLING THE FRONT OVER THE SE CORNER FRI AND WEAKENING IT. OVER THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ALLOW THE TAIL END TO RETROGRADE NW TROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ZONE. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM THE 00Z/12 ECMWF FORECAST TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN BY MON WHEN THE MODELS AGREE ON SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGHING AND HOW MUCH IT INFLUENCES THE RETROGRADING TAIL END OF THE PREVIOUS BOUNDARY. WITH SOME TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS SEEN IN THE ECMWF...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE GFS FORECAST FOR NOW. TROPICAL N ATLC... FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CURRENTLY LIE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 16N ACCORDING TO THE 0104Z ASCAT PASS. STRONG HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG 31N THROUGH FRI MORNING...KEEPING THE WINDS UP AND THE SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE. BY SAT...WINDS GET KNOCKED DOWN A NOTCH TO FRESH AS HIGH PRES MOVE OFF TO THE EASTERN ATLC...BUT THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS WITH SWELL CONTINUING TO BE NORTHEASTERLY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN ON SUN AND MON AS HIGH PRES MOVES E ALONG 30W BEHIND THE THE FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SW N ATLC. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HERE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 0144Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WINDS TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. IN THE NE CARIBBEAN...THE TAIL END A COLD FRONT LIES FRONT CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE AND HAS BROUGHT STRONG NE WINDS WITH IT THAT AREA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI WHEN THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THE HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EASTWARD ALONG 30N AND SLACKEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN A NOTCH FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MON. OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MON...WINDS IN THE FAR W CARIBBEAN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. RETURN FLOW RESPONDING TO A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TURN WINDS SOUTHEASTERN N OF 15N ON MON. GULF OF MEXICO... THE REINFORCING SURGE OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND COLD DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BRING 20-30 KT NNE WINDS TO THE ENTIRE GULF ACCORDING TO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE 0248Z ASCAT PASS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER MUCH OF THE GULF LATER TODAY INTO FRI AS THE HIGH PRES CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AIR SURGE APPROACHES THE NE GULF AND TROUGHING BUILDS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING THE RETURN FLOW TO 20 KT BY FRI NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS WITH THE ECMWF CARRYING A LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE THE GFS CARRIES A TRACK CONSIDERABLY FARTHER N THROUGH ARKANSAS ON MON. THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE HPC MEDIUM RANGE PROGS SEEM TO FAVOR THE CURRENT 00Z GFS TRACK. WILL LEAN ON THE GFS FOR THE FORECAST. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER