000 AGXX40 KNHC 291944 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST WED DEC 29 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ERODING OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WHILE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED BY A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THAT PORTION OF THE GULF THAT HAS FORMED IN ADVANCE LOW PRES MOVING E AND NE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE AREA REVEAL SE-S MODERATE TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS 20-25 KT OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE WESTERN GULF WITH A FEW BRIEF GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS AS BEING REPORTED BY FAA PLATFORM BBF NEAR 28N96W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1524 UTC ALSO CONFIRMED THESE REPORTS. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER SE TO S 15-20 KT...EXCEPT E OF 87W WHERE WINDS LIGHT E TO SE 5-10 KT. SEA STATE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON DEPICTED SEAS OF 7-10 FT OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF FROM ABOUT 26N TO 28N W OF 95W...6 TO 8 FT ELSEWHERE W OF 92W ...3 TO 5 FT BETWEEN 87W AND 92W AND LOWER SEAS OF 0 TO 1 FT E OF 87W EXCEPT S OF 25N WHERE SEAS ARE 2 TO 3 FT. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS VALID 18 UTC SHOWED A 1022 MB HIGH LOCATED JUST E OF CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W WITH A RIDGE SW TO NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS ENTIRE AREA OF HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT ESE OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. AS THIS HAPPENS LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL INTENSIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING E AND LOW PRES DEVELOPING W OF THE AREA THE INFLUENCE ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WILL BE FOR CURRENT MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF ZONES BEFORE WEAKENING ON SUN WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM IS STILL SET TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS LATE FRI AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS SUGGESTED BY MODELS AS LATEST RUN IS STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF. LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...IT STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN U.S. FRI THROUGH SUN WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PULLING OFF TO THE N AND NE OF THE GULF ONCE IT PASSES ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOWER FRONTAL MOTION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. SO WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL FORECAST FRONT TO REACH FROM NEARS SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY SAT AFTERNOON...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 25N89W...TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO BY SUN AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM S FLORIDA TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE MON. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD S ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO N-NE AT 20-25 KT WITH A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REACHING 25-30 KT OVER THE FAR WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST ON SUN. SEAS PER WAVEWATCH CONSENSUS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 10 FT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE MAXIMUM MOSTLY S OF 26N W OF 90W ALLOWED BY GIVEN FETCH AND DURATION. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS SW TO NEAR 15N66W...THEN AS A SHEARLINE TO 15N74W. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS OBSERVED ON A ASCAT PASS FROM 1526 THIS MORNING AND BY BUOY 42057 NEAR 17N82W ARE 20-25 KT WITH A POCKET OF NE 25-30 KT WINDS S OF HISPANIOLA TO 15N AND BETWEEN 68W-72W. OBSERVED SEA STATE OF 8-13 FT IS NOTED THROUGHOUT THIS AREA WITH HIGHEST SEAS S OF 15N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. ELSEWHERE FRESH NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG NE WINDS BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND COLOMBIA AS NOTED EARLIER. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 AND 9 FT OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 15N AND W OF 75W. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WHILE THE STATIONARY PORTION DISSIPATES. ATLC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE INTO THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUN...THEN PERHAPS DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC MON. SW N ATLC... HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST NEAR 29N79W. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO NEAR 28N73W IN 24 HOURS THEN SHIFT NE TO OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT WITH A RIDGE STRENGTHENING FROM 31N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE SAT INCREASING WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION INTO SUN CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS S OF 27N THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...BUT COULD POSSIBLY REACH 30 KT BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AND NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WAVEWATCH MODEL BUILDS SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELLS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THIS AREA...WITH SEAS TO 8 FT BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE FAR W PORTION SUN...BUT BECOME S-SW AT 15 KT OVER THE NW PORTION IN ADVANCE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS N FLORIDA AND TOWARDS THE COAST AND TO A LINE FROM NEAR 31N73W TO NE FLORIDA MON. WINDS BECOME N TO NE 20-25 KT N OF FRONT. LARGE SEAS IN NW SWELLS WILL BE SLOW IN SUBSIDING OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH EARLY THU NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT FRI AND TO 4-6 FT SUN AND MON AS ADVERTISED BY THE WAVEWATCH MODEL. HOWEVER...SEAS WITH REMAIN HIGHER OVER THE SE PORTION..POSSIBLY UP TO 8 FT IN A NE SWELL. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE