000 AGXX40 KNHC 140648 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST TUE DEC 14 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 0308 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED NW TO N WINDS OF 20-30 KT OVER THE E GULF WHERE VERY COLD AIR REMAINS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER GULF WATERS. THE PERSISTENT NW FETCH OVER THIS AREA HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN WESTERN CUBA WHICH SHOULD EASE BY TONIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NE-E LATE. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE W CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 28N93W AT 1025 MB. THE SAME ASCAT PASS ALSO INDICATED N TO NE 15-20 KT WINDS NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT LATER THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO NEAR 28N87W THIS EVENING AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE W GULF INCREASING TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E TO OVER FLORIDA BY THU MORNING ALLOWING FOR THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO EXPAND TO THE E GULF. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST THU NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH STRONGER WITH THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW INDICATING A SURGE OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 30N90W TO 20N97W FRI NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRES DEVELOPING NEAR SE LOUISIANA ALONG THE FRONT THEN FROM 30N85W TO 24N90W TO 18N95W SAT AFTERNOON PUSHING SE OF THE GULF SAT NIGHT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM HAITI TO JUST SE OF JAMAICA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS FRONT IS SLOWING AND BECOMING LESS DEFINED WITH THE COLD AIR NOW HAVING OUTRUN THE BOUNDARY AS INDICATED BY A 0306 UTC ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED NW TO N 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. A RECENT JASON ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED 10 FT SEAS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND NDBC BUOY 42056 NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLIER REPORTED 12 FT SEAS. MEANWHILE 5-10 KT NE-E WINDS EXIST OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AS CAPTURED BY A 0124 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL MERGE WITH A SHEAR AXIS TODAY CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SW TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION CONTINUES NE OF THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BEHIND THE SHEAR AXIS/FRONT BY WED NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THU WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN BY LATE THU THROUGH SAT. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TRADES EXIST S OF 17N WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE E-SE N OF 17N AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH NW SWELL OF UP TO 13 FT ARRIVING BEHIND IT BY TONIGHT. THE SWELL WILL DECAY TO 9-11 FT BY FRI WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES SETTING UP ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS NOW IN THE E PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N62W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. S TO SW WINDS OF 25-35 KT REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N THROUGH TODAY THEN WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT WEAKENS TONIGHT. A 0128 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED W-NW WINDS OF 25-35 KT BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 25N WITH NUMEROUS BUOY AND SHIP OBS CURRENTLY REPORTING 30-35 KT. NDBC BUOY 41047 LOCATED NEAR 28N71W JUST REPORTED 21 FT SEAS AND BUOY 41046 TO THE S NEAR 24N71W HAS COME UP TO 16 FT IN THE PAST HOUR. A 0145 UTC JASON ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED 20 FT SEAS NEAR 29N75W. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE FRONT TO PERSIST TODAY DIMINISHING TO 20-30 KT ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES E OF THE WATERS. RIDGING BUILDS IN ON WED WITH 1020 MB HIGH PRES DEVELOPING JUST NE OF THE BAHAMAS. AN E TO W RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG 26N/27N THU THROUGH FRI. W-SW WINDS INCREASE N OF THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP JUST S OF 31N THU NIGHT PUSHING NE OF THE AREA FRI. ANOTHER AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA SAT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NW PORTION. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N77W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE SAT WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF IT AND STRONG W-NW WINDS BEHIND IT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 28N WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT AND N OF 26N W OF FRONT TODAY. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY