000 AGXX40 KNHC 130711 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST MON DEC 13 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SE OF THE GULF WITH A REINFORCING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO 25N91W. A 0328 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED 35-40 KT WINDS IN THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF WITH NUMEROUS BUOYS REPORTING 30-35 KT. A RECENT JASON ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED A MAXIMUM OF 16 FT SEAS NEAR THE REINFORCING TROUGH. NDBC BUOY 42099 NEAR 26N86W JUST REPORTED 19 FT SEAS. THE GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH IN THE W GULF AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE W-NW WITH THE LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS REPORTING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING TO OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS EXTENDING FROM NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY TUE MORNING. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE W GULF TUE NIGHT AND WED AS HIGH PRES SETS UP JUST E OF FLORIDA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 25N BY THU. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST FROM THE NW THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWING 5-10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THU NIGHT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE FAR N GULF WATERS FRI BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE FRI AS THE RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM SW HAITI TO ACROSS EASTERN JAMAICA TO EASTERN PANAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AREA OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AXIS. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA TO NORTHERN BELIZE APPROACHES EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES CLOSER. A 0328 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH NW-N 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND SHEAR AXIS. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-30 KT AS REINFORCING COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS EXPECT TO BE FUNNELED UP ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO UP TO 15 FT THERE. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR EASTERN CUBA TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF HONDURAS AROUND SUNRISE THEN FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO CENTRAL PANAMA TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE E TUE AND WED WHILE A REMNANT SHEAR AXIS BECOMES ESTABLISHED FROM S OF PUERTO RICO TO 15N70W TO JUST OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THU AND FRI WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND E GULF FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE NW SWELL OF UP TO 13 FT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TUE NIGHT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT THU AND FRI. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... 1010 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 25N65W WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 31N71W TO NW OF THE AREA. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N74W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO JUST SE OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A REINFORCING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N77W TO JUST S OF THE FLORIDA SPACE COAST. A 0148 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED GALE FORCE CONDITIONS N OF 27N AND W OF THE COLD FRONT. ALSO STILL EXPECT 30-35 KT WINDS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA THEN FROM NEAR 31N67W TO HAITI THIS EVENING... FROM 31N62W TO THE MONA PASSAGE TUE MORNING PUSHING E OF THE AREA BY WED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUE THEN BEHIND THE FRONT TUE NIGHT. LARGE NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT PEAKING AT AROUND 25 FT N OF 27N. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS BY WED. NEW HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED JUST E OF THE FLORIDA COAST ON THU WITH E TO W RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG 25-26N THU THROUGH FRI. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE THU ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE FRONT TO JUST N OF 29N AS THE RIDGE HOLDS STRONG. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 27N WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT TODAY THROUGH TUE. .AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 25N W OF FRONT TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING GMZ084-086 TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY