000 AGXX40 KNHC 101931 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 15-20 KT RETURN FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND 10 TO 15 KT NE TO E WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SAT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW GULF WATERS SAT EVENING THEN RAPIDLY PUSH SSE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. EXPECT 25-30 KT N WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SHOWS WINDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE AND SREF 34 KT PROBABILITIES ARE 10 PCT OR LESS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL INDICATE GALES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. S RETURN FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF TUE AND TUE NIGHT AROUND 15-20 KT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THIS MORNING INDICATES FRESH N WINDS ARE PRESENT NNW OF A STATIONARY 1009 MB LOW ON THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA NEAR 10N78W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS...BUT BY SAT NIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6-7 FT. ASCAT PASS AT 1340 UTC SHOWED WINDS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ARE BELOW 20 KT. EXPECT MODERATE TRADES OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH MON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT WITH 20 TO 30 KT N WINDS BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON MORNING THEN FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO EASTERN PANAMA BY TUE MORNING AND FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NW COLOMBIA TUE NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 FT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG WINDS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC... FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WERE INDICATED BY A 1338 UTC ASCAT PASS WITH 9 TO 12 FT SEAS FROM BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS. TRADES WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT SAT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 7-10 FT. THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TUE...WITH NW SWELL TO 14 FT BY TUE NIGHT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N54W TO 26N67W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 22N70W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY WITH ENE WINDS N OF THE FRONT STRENGTHENING TO 20-25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 12 FT TONIGHT. GFS SHOWS THE FRONT WEAKENING TO A TROUGH SAT WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15-20 KT BY SAT NIGHT THEN VEERING S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY SUN. ASCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWED 25 KT WINDS WERE ALREADY IN PLACE N OF 27N W OF 75W. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDS SE FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. EXPECT THE COASTAL TROUGH TO LINGER E OF FLORIDA THROUGH SAT THEN DISSIPATE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF GEORGIA AND FLORIDA SAT AFTERNOON. SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT E OF THE FRONT WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR WINDS BELOW 34 KT. GALES APPEAR MORE LIKELY IN NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUING THROUGH MON EVENING N OF 29N. REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM 31N79W TO CAPE CANAVERAL SUN AFTERNOON...FROM 31N69W TO EASTERN CUBA MON MORNING...THEN FROM NEAR 31N60W TO THE MONA PASSAGE TUE MORNING. LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATES SE INTO THE AREA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 20 FT N OF 27N BY MON NIGHT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 27N W OF COLD FRONT SUN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL