000 AGXX40 KNHC 041743 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1200 PM EST SAT DEC 4 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CENTER MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS ATTM WITH THE SLY FLOW W OF CENTER PULSING TO 15 KT AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO MOSTLY 10 KT. BY THEN WLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS N OF 28N E OF 90W SHOULD ALREADY BE INCREASING TO 10-15 KT AS E-W ORIENTATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MOISTURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AS IT DISSECTS GULF ALONG 25N LATE TONIGHT...AND ENTERS NW CARIBBEAN LATE MON. GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS THAT A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL TRAIL NW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ALONG THE NE MEXICAN AND E TX COASTS THROUGH WED. THEREAFTER ANOTHER NLY COLD SURGE ARRIVES AND PUSHES THE FRONTAL REMNANTS SE AGAIN BUT NOT AS FAR AS 90W...AS THE BACKDOOR NW-SE ORIENTATED RIDGE FROM SE LA TO YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL BLOCK ITS EASTWARD ADVANCE. LITTLE CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY IN TIMING...OF THIS SCENARIO...AND EXPECT FLUCTUATIONS IN GUIDANCE AND THUS EXTENDED FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT OR SO. CARIBBEAN... THE FRONTAL TROUGH FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE E GULF OF HONDURAS HAS BECOME BROAD THUS DROPPED MENTION IN TEXT FORECASTS. HOWEVER N-NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ZONE AND OVER A SWATH S OF HISPANIOLA. GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NW ZONE SUN BUT INCREASE AGAIN TO 15-20 KT AS NEXT FRONT ARRIVES LATE MON. FURTHER S GUIDANCE HANGS ONTO A WEAK LOW PRES OR TROUGH JUST S OF PANAMA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND INCREASES THE N FLOW TO 20-25 KT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT INTO THU. BY THEN THE FRONT WILL DISSECT THE CARIBBEAN FROM NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE TO N COLOMBIA WITH A NE-E WIND SHIFT AT 15-20 KT ALONG THE AXIS. TROPICAL ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 55W-65W... A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MEANDER OVER THE WATERS N OF 18N THROUGH MON. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-10 FT IN LONG PERIOD N SWELL WHICH WILL ARRIVE ALONG 22N SUN...REACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES SUN NIGHT... AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THEY TRANSVERSE N TO S THE ATLC WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS ARRIVING AT THE COAST OF S AMERICA MON NIGHT. BY THEN AN ENE-SSW RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT SHIFT E TUE NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND IN TURNS STALLS AND WASHES OUT THU AND FRI. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE LONG PERIOD N SWELLS REACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGE EARLY THU AND CONTINUING S PASSING THE TRINIDAD LATITUDE FRI MORNING. SW N ATLC W OF 65W... A COLD FRONT FROM 27N55W TO THE MONA PASSAGE WILL DRIFT SE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM 23N55W TO THE MONA PASSAGE THROUGH MON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL RACE OFF THE SE GA COAST TONIGHT PASSING THROUGH BERMUDA AND SE FL LATE SUN...THEN LOSE ITS SE PUSH OVER THE SE ATLC WATERS TUE NIGHT-WED WITH THE REMNANTS DRIFTING W OVER THE WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO WED NIGHT-THU. STILL EXPECT W-NW WINDS TO INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE OVER THE ATLC WATERS N OF 30N BETWEEN 78W-68W EARLY SUN MORNING...THEN SHIFT E TO THE WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 72W AND 60W EARLY SUN NIGHT BEFORE THE SUPPORTING ENERGY LIFTS NE OF THE AREA. A SECOND SHOT OF NLY COLD AIR ARRIVES MON NIGHT...BUT THE AREA OF ASSOCIATED GALE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN N OF 31N TO THE S OF BERMUDA MID DAY TUE...BUT W-NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS N OF 28N THROUGH EARLY WED NIGHT. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN FROM W ON WED AND THU WITH HINT OF YET ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS WED...BUT NOT REACHING THE BERMUDA AREA TILL FRI NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWERS ALONG FRONT IN GULF OF MEXICO IT SUGGEST DRY AIR OVER THE ATLC WATERS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING EXPECTED SUN N OF 30N BETWEEN 78W-68W SUN AND N OF 29N BETWEEN 72W-60W EARLY SUN NIGHT. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON