000 AGXX40 KNHC 040730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST SAT DEC 4 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS FORM ACROSS THE AREA ARE REPORTING LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS THAN THE PREVIOUS THROUGHOUT WITH HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N87W. HIGHEST SEAS BEING REPORTED ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE IN THE FAR SE WATERS AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH SEAS ELSEWHERE GENERALLY AT 2 FT. MOSTLY LIGHT FLOW WILL PERSIST SAT ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE PORTION THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH STARTS TO MOVE S AND WEAKEN. OVER THE FAR SE PORTION A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR NE WINDS OF 15 KT THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE S INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT...AND AND REACH FROM S FLORIDA TO FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS SUN NIGHT...THEN ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA MON NIGHT WITH ITS WESTERN EXTENSION EXTENDING NW AS A TROUGH TO ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ALONG TEXAS COAST THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER SE LOUISIANA. EXPECT MODERATE N FLOW ON MON OVERSPREADING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BY TUE BEFORE DIMINISHING ON WED AS STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS S OVER THE AREA. BY EARLY TUE THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS...IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT FROM THE N...WILL BE EVIDENT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONE AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF. THESE WINDS THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT LATER ON TUE AND WED AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. ON TUE AND WED THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF SW GULF TO THE W OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS THERE SHOULD BUILD UP TO 6 OR 7 FT WED. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC W OF 55W... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARDS PASSAGE SW TO NE HONDURAS. A SMALL PARTIAL ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH REPORTS FROM BUOY 42056 NEAR 20N85W SHOW NE 20 KT WINDS TO THE W OF THE FRONT. TO THE E OF THE FRONT THE FLOW IS MORE NELY 15-20 KT. FRESH NNE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW CARIB THROUGH FRI AND KEEP SEAS THERE AT 7 TO 9 FT...WITH NLY SWELL PUSHING DOWN INTO COASTAL NICARAGUA. FURTHER S...A WEAK TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA...BUT GLOBAL MODELS SHOW PRESSURES RISING THROUGH SUN THERE. ELSEWHERE...FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES NW OF THE BAHAMAS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. BUOYS IN THE ATLC AND CARIBBEAN INDICATE THAT N TO NE SWELLS TO 8 FT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A NEW BATCH OF NE SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FT WILL ARRIVE MON...WITH YET ANOTHER BATCHES ARRIVING TUE INTO WED IMPACTING THE FAR NE ATLC PASSAGES. SW N ATLC W OF 65W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N65W SW TO EASTERN CUBA EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT TO THE SW OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE WINDS ARE N TO NE 15 TO 20 KT. WINDS SE OF THE FRONT ARE N TO NE 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3 TO 6 FT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND 6 TO 8 FT IN N SWELL SE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 27N65W TO NW HAITI BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE E OF THE AREA TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE WATERS NW OF THE FRONT AND E OF THE BAHAMAS IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE OFF THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9 TO 12 FT IN N TO NE SWELL WILL BUILD N OF 25N E OF 70W. LOW PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TO A POSITION FROM 31N69W TO S FLORIDA BY SUN AFTERNOON...FROM 27N65W TO HISPANIOLA BY MON MORNING...THEN WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 25N65W TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA BY LATE TUE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECEDED BY GALE FORCE WINDS SE OF IT TO 28N AND E OF 78W ON SUN AS PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO FUNNEL IN BEHIND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUE. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS A RESULT OF LARGE LOW PRES N OF THE AREA AND HIGHER PRES THAT BUILDS SE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW FLOW IN PLACE MAINLY N OF 25N INTO TUE...WITH STRONG WINDS UP TO 30 KT E OF 71W AND WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 11 TO 17 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST EXPECTED N OF 29N. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING EXPECTED SUN N OF 28N E OF 78W... CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE