000 AGXX40 KNHC 020750 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 AM EST THU DEC 2 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH ENTIRE BASIN AND INTO FAR NW CARIB WITH OVC STRATOCU BEHIND FRONT GENERALLY S OF 21.5N. HIGH BEHIND FRONT HAS SHIFTED TO LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS CAUSING WINDS TO VEER ACROSS THE BASIN...AND HAVE ALREADY BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. N TO NE WINDS 20-25 KT WERE INDICATED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE E...SE..AND SRN GULF TO THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH RECENT ASCAT PASSES. BUOY 41003 IN THE E HAS JUST DROPPED BELOW 10 FT...WHILE PEMEX BUOY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAD FALLEN TO 2.7M OR 9 FT AT 0130Z. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT E TO SE LOUISIANA NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAINTAIN THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND 20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WITH WINDS OTHERWISE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRES DRIFTS SE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ON SUN...REACHING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS BY SUN EVENING...THEN STALLING AND WEAKENING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO BY LATE MON. FRESH N FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC W OF 55W... COLD FRONT HAS STALLED...FOR NOW...ACROSS THE EXTREME NW CARIB FROM JUST E OF CARDENAS CUBA TO THE WRN GULF OF HONDURAS. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IS NNE AT 20-25 KT...AND MORE NELY 15-20 KT ON THE E SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY. FRESH NNE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW CARIB THROUGH FRI AND KEEP SEAS THERE AT 7 TO 9 FT...WITH NLY SWELL PUSHING DOWN INTO COASTAL NICARAGUA. FRESH NELY TRADES OTHERWISE CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN CARIB S OF 14N. A NEW LOW APPEARS THAT FORMED ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIB JUST OFF THE PANAMANIAN COAST NEAR 79W...HELPING TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE LLVL FLOW TO THE NW OF THIS NEW LOW...AND FORCE DEEP CNVTN ALONG THE MONSOON TROF. THE GFS HAS BACK OFF OF DEEPENING A LOW ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT STILL TAKES THIS LOW IN A SMALL A CYCLONIC LOOP AND THEN MOVES IT E INTO NW COLOMBIA. OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST LINGERING WEAK LOWS WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH THERE WITHOUT THE GLARING SPECIFICS OF THE GFS. A 0212Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED SOLID 20-25 KT FLOW TO THE N OF THE TROUGH THERE...WITH SOME SMALL AREAS OF 25-30 KT IN CNVTN...WHILE SHIP ZCDF4 REPORTED 33 KT AND SEAS 12 FT NEAR 11N82.5W AT 05Z. A 0345Z ALTIMETER PASS JUST TO THE E OF THIS SHIP SHOWED 9-10.5 FT SEAS IN THIS AREA ALONG ABOUT 82W. BASED ON THIS AND THE FACT THE CNVTN WILL CONTINUE HERE IN THE SHORT TERM I HAVE DECIDED TO GO 20-30 KT WITH SEAS TO 12 FT IN THIS FAR SW PORTION...AND THEN FOLLOW A MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE LOW OVER LAND OR WITH SIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION TO ALLOW FOR WEAKENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN WILL BACK SLIGHTLY NEXT 24 HOURS AS GALE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC MOVES E-SE AND FORCES NLY FLOW INTO N PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE MIXED NELY SWELL ACROSS THIS AREA AND THROUGH THE NE CARIB PASSAGES WED HAS PEAKED AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY LONG PERIOD NNE SWELL FROM THE GALE CENTER LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI. THIS NEXT PULSE OF SWELL IS FORECAST BY WWIII TO PEAK ACROSS THE NE CARIB REGION FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AT 8-11 FT. SW N ATLC W OF 65W... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE E-SE ACROSS THE AREA AND EXTENDED FROM NEAR 31N71W TO NEAR NASSAU AND THEN WRN CUBA. ELY TRADES ACROSS S PORTIONS YDA HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT...EXCEPT NELY FLOW NEAR 20 KT MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH E-SE ACROSS N PORTIONS NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE HANGING UP ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THEN CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME N AT 15-20 KT TODAY...WITH HIGHEST WINDS THROUGH STRAITS AND PASSAGES. SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL AMPLIFY AGAINST THE GULF STREAM AND LIKELY PRODUCE WAVES TO 8 FT BY TONIGHT. FRONT WILL THEN REACH FROM NEAR 29N65W TO EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY FRI...FROM 24N65W TO NORTHERN HAITI BY EARLY SAT...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE JUST NW OF PUERTO RICO SUN. SW TO W WINDS WILL INCREASE N OF 28N LATE SAT AHEAD OF A STRONG REINFORCING FRONT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST SUN...REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY LATE SUN. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SECOND FRONT TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY SUN. WITH TIGHT GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA N OF 28N SUN BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING