000 AGXX40 KNHC 291803 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EST MON NOV 29 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS WITH NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF TX COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NLY WINDS W OF FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT TONIGHT AND THEN FURTHER INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE EARLY WED MORNING OVER THE NW ZONE...AND OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE SW GULF ZONE AROUND MID MORNING WED. EXPECT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW ZONE BY SUNSET TUE...BUT NLY WINDS WILL BUILD TO 40 KT MAX OVER THE SW ZONE W OF THE FRONT...AND CONTINUE AT GALE FORCE TO JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WED. THE POST FRONTAL HIGH PRES CENTER WILL SHIFT E FROM TX TO SRN LA WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. THIS POSITION WILL MAINTAIN A NE FLOW 15-20 KT OVER THE E GULF WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW WATERS WHERE LIGHT E WINDS WILL LAST THROUGH FRI...THEN BECOME SE SAT AS HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS N BUT MAINTAINS A NE-SW RIDGE ALONG THE TX COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL N AREA WILL MAINTAIN TIGHT PRES GRADIENT...NE 20-25 KT WINDS...ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AS THE PARENT HIGH CENTER WELL TO N SHIFTS EASTWARD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE WED AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A TROPICAL LOW IN THE SW CARIB THU AND FRI AND MOVES IT NE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHILE GFS ENSEMBLE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHIFT A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS W-SW THROUGH THE MONSOONAL TROUGH AND INTO THE EPAC. EXPECT A WEAK E-W TROUGH AND LATER A SMALL LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SW N ATLC... A FRONTAL TROUGH IS BECOMING ORIENTATED SE TO NW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS. THE WESTERN SEGMENT IS LIFTING N ALONG THE NE FLORIDA COAST WHILE THE SEGMENT E OF 75W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING S EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT OVER THE ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 20N AND 22N LATE THIS WEEK. NE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REACH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND THE E BAHAMAS WED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GA COAST EARLY WED MORNING...LATER THAN YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. THIS SECOND...STRONGER FRONT... WILL PASS THROUGH BERMUDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS THU MORNING THEN DISSIPATE FRI. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED JUST E OF THE AREA NEAR 29N53W WED NIGHT INTO THU. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ080...GALE WARNING TUE. .GMZ082...GALE WARNING TUE AND TUE NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON