000 AGXX40 KNHC 280739 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 239 AM EST SUN NOV 28 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STALLED COLD FRONT PERSISTS FROM NEAR NAPLES ARCHING SW INTO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TONIGHT...WITH BROAD BAND OF MULTI-LAYERED LOW AND MID CLOUDS EXTENDING 100-150 NM TO THE N AND NW. A 0338 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A 60 NM WIDE BAND OF NE WINDS 25 KT N OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 87W AND 91.5W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SW GULF WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN ON A DIMINISHING TREND PAST 6-12 HOURS WITH SW BUOY 42056 MOST RECENTLY DOWN TO N-NE WINDS 12 KT AND SEAS 7 FT. WINDS ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SHIFT SE. LOOK FOR THE FRONTAL BAND TO GRADUALLY WASH OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH ACROSS THE SE U.S. SLIDES TO THE MID ATLC COAST...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE BASIN. A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MON-TUE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PROMOTE STRONG SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEW FRONT...REACHING 20-25 KT ALONG THE N GULF COAST BY MON AFTERNOON. FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COAST OVERNIGHT MON AND REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE UPPER MEXICAN COAST BY 12 TUE...WITH GALES DEVELOPING QUICKLY BEHIND IT. THESE GALES POSSIBLY TO 40 KT AND HIGHER WILL SPREAD S WITH THE FRONT TO THE FAR WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE EVENING/NIGHT. WWIII RESPONDS WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT ACROSS WRN GULF BY TUE AFTERNOON BUILDING TO 10-15 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH HIGHEST SEAS SLAMMING THE MEXICAN COAST OF VERACRUZ. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N61W CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT GRADIENT FOR FRESH ENE TRADES ACROSS THE CARIB E OF 80W...WITH NLY SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE LARGER ATLC PASSAGES AND ALL THE WAY TO THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA. AS THE W ATLC FRONT MOVES FARTHER SE AND FORCING HIGH BEHIND IT SHIFTS TO THE E COAST OF U.S. NEXT 24 HOURS...WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT AND EXPAND ACROSS THE CARIB AND TROPICAL N ATLC...WWD TO NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...WITH MODELS FORECASTING A VERY BROAD AREA OF 25 KT BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND POTENTIALLY SPOTS TO 30 KT S OF HISPANIOLA...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...AND OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WIND GENERATED SEAS WILL BE ON THE RISE NEXT FEW DAYS BUILDING 8-12 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIB BY MON AFTERNOON AND 9-13 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS THEN BEEN SPINNING UP A SIGNIFICANT LOW ACROSS THE SW CARIB TUE-WED IN RESPONSE TO A STILL ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW IN THE EPAC. AT THIS TIME AM OPTING FOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT HAS STALLED JUST N OF THE NW BAHAMAS AND WILL ROTATE SE ACROSS THE W ATLC NEXT FEW DAYS AS A 1032 MB HIGH MOVES TO THE MID ATLC COAST TONIGHT-MON AND THEN OFFSHORE TUE. FRESH NE TO E FLOW WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE WATERS N OF THE FRONT TO GENERATE WIND SEAS 7-8 FT BY MON AFTERNOON...WHILE WINDS VEER MORE E TO SE 20-25 KT W OF 75W AND INTO THE FLORIDA OFFSHORE AND COASTAL WATERS...ALSO BUILDING SEAS 6-8 FT. THIS SCENARIO WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE AS THE FRONT SINKS FARTHER S TO ALONG ABOUT 22N E OF 70W...WITH FRESH WINDS 20-25 KT N OF THE FRONT DOMINATING THE ATLC WATERS AND MAINTAINING SEAS 7-9 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO ABATE EARLY WED AS GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT REACHES N FLORIDA AND HIGH ACROSS THE NW ATLC WEAKENS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS FLORIDA WED REACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED NIGHT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON NIGHT AND TUE. .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE AND TUE NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING