000
AGXX40 KNHC 041855
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT THU NOV 4 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL GULF PRODUCES FUNNELING EFFECTS IN 
SWRN ZONE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG COAST OF MEXICO S OF 24N W 
OF 74W THROUGH FRI.  HIGH PRES OVER SERN STATES BRINGS IN COLD 
DRY AND STRONG N WINDS THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING 
TO FRESH NE BREEZE W OF 90W SAT AND SUN.  HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND 
MOVES E BY MON BRINGING SE RETURN FLOW W OF 94W AND KEEPING 
LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE THROUGH REMAINDER GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TOMAS REMAINS AS THE CENTRAL FEATURE IN THE BASIN AS ITS FEEBLE 
TRACK AND INTENSITY CHANGES DETERMINE CONDITIONS ACROSS ENTIRE 
BASIN.  AT THIS TIME...WITH A BETTER DEFINED ORGANIZATION... 
TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK N THEN NE WHILE STRENGTHENING. 
ENVIRONMENT SEEMS FAVORABLE TO REACH HURRICANE FORCE BY THE TIME 
IT ENTERS SW N ATLC THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE EARLY FRI.  
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AFTER 36 HRS WITH STRONG WIND 
SHEAR DECOUPLING TOMAS AND WEAKENING IT BY 48 HRS.  WHILE 
POSSIBLY STRIKING NORTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MINIMAL HURRICANE 
FORCE WINDS...RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE ITS MOST IMPACTING THREAT. 
STRONG WIND FIELD EXTENSION IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS ITS CLOUD 
COVERAGE.  IMPACT OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA AND THE ISLANDS OF 
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WOULD BE UNDER COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF 
RAIN THROUGH POSSIBLY SAT. 

TROPICAL N ATLC...
WEAKENING TROUGH ALONG 47W S OF 20N DRIFT W AS UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH AXIS BRINGS LARGE AREA OF DRY STABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF 
IT.  GRADIENT BETWEEN BUILDING N CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES AND 
TROUGH INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS OVER MUCH OF AREA N OF 15N 
THROUGH SAT.

SW N ATLC...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TOMAS A CONCERN IN 
ADDITION TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS E OF STRONG COLD FRONT  
ENTERING SW N ATLC TONIGHT.  BETWEEN BOTH SYSTEMS ALMOST ENTIRE 
BASIN IS IMPACTED BY WINDS NEAR OR ABOVE 35 KT.  SEAS BUILDING 
TO ABOVE 20 FT EXPECTED WITH TOMAS AND 12-14 FT WITH STRONG COLD 
FRONT.  

WARNINGS...
ATLC...
.HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...AMZ080.

CARIBBEAN...
.TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 15N E OF 77W...AMZ082.
.TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 15N W OF 73W...AMZ086.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.GALE WARNING W OF 93W...GMZ082.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES