000 AGXX40 KNHC 241818 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 PM EDT SUN OCT 24 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... ATLC RIDGING CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE NE AND E GULF WITH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE SW HALF OF THE GULF. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND NOW HURRICANE RICHARD IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS RESULTING IN E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE E AND N CENTRAL GULF AS CAPTURED BY A 1448 UTC ASCAT PASS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE NW GULF MON NIGHT AND TUE AS THE RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED MORE E TO W ALONG THE N GULF WATERS WITH THE APPROACH OF RICHARD. RICHARD IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN BELIZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING THEN WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES INLAND. RICHARD IS FORECAST TO EMERGE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19.1N 93.0W AS A 25 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY TUE MORNING...THEN WILL WEAKEN TO A 20 KT SYSTEM BY EARLY WED MORNING...BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY THU AND DISSIPATING BY EARLY FRI. MEANWHILE RIDGING WILL WEAKEN WED AND THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE N GULF FROM THE U.S. CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE N GULF WATERS LATE THU REACHING FROM SW FLORIDA TO NEAR 23N90W ON FRI WITH A NE 20 KT WIND SURGE ARRIVING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HURRICANE RICHARD WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 87.5W OR ABOUT 55 MILES ESE OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 KT AND GUSTS TO 90 KT AT 100 PM CDT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 988 MB AND RICHARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WNW AROUND 11 KT. RICHARD WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN BELIZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND RESULTANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES TO BELIZE...EASTERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. A 1450 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 TO 33 KT WINDS OCCURRING S OF 20N W OF 83W OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL STORM OR GREATER FORCE WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE FORECAST WATERS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE W GULF OF HONDURAS THIS EVENING THEN QUICKLY TO 20 KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BATTER AND AFFECT THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE WITH A WEAK WIND FLOW REGIME SETTING UP WED THROUGH LATE THU. SW N ATLC... A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 28N55W TO 25N65W TO 25N76W. A 1446 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT NW OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH NDBC BUOYS 41047 AND 41049 REPORTING 21 KT AND 23 KT RESPECTIVELY. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WHILE THE NORTHERN PART CONTINUES TO MARCH OFF TO THE NE TO E THROUGH THE PERIOD. ATLC RIDGING EXISTS BEHIND THE FRONTAL TROUGH AND WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH WED. THE 12 UTC OPERATIONAL GFS DEVELOPS A PAIR OF LOWS BY LATE WEEK...ONE ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS AND ANOTHER ALONG A TROUGH WELL SE OF THE AREA. THE 12 UTC HI- RES ECMWF ALSO DEVELOPS TWO LOWS ALTHOUGH THIS MODEL SOLUTION IS WEAKER AND LESS PRONOUNCED THAN THAT OF THE GFS. OPTED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST A TROPICAL WAVE AND TROUGH FOR NOW BEING 4 TO 5 DAYS OUT AND DUE TO THE DISCREPANCY IN STRENGTH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OFF THE SE U.S. COAST THU NIGHT REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NEAR MIAMI FLORIDA BY FRI EVENING. EXPECT A N TO NE SURGE OF 20 TO 30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FT WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE STILL RELATIVELY WARM ATLC WATERS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .HURRICANE WARNING S OF 19N W OF 85W...AMZ082. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY