000 AGXX40 KNHC 141908 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 305 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS IS THE IMPACT OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. PAULA IS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NW COAST OF CUBA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND APPROXIMATELY 45 NM OUT FROM THE CENTER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AS PAULA WEAKENS FURTHER AND SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE SPINE OF CUBA...AND PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE SAT MORNING. A 15Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER...IMPACTING TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. A 13Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWED 15 TO 20 KT WINDS OVER THE SW GULF...IN AGREEMENT WITH DATA FROM BUOY 42055. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS CURRENTLY. THIS FEATURE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS SE THROUGH TEXAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE GULF SAT THROUGH TUE AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND DEEP SOUTH STATES. CARIBBEAN... FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW IS PUSHING INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA...MOVING INLAND OVER THE NW COAST OF CUBA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS PAULA WEAKENS AND MOVES E ALONG THE SPINE OF CUBA. A WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N-S FROM CENTRAL PANAMA TO WEST OF JAMAICA. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT LOW OF PAULA OVER CENTRAL CUBA ALONG WITH THIS TROUGH PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GRADIENT WINDS WILL REMAIN FRESH TO STRONG ALONG THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN AND HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER TO THE NORTH OF GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE 20 TO 25 KT E WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE FRI AS HIGH PRES OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC WEAKENS. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD LOW FORMING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE PERSISTENT TROUGH...IN RESPONSE TO RESURGENT MONSOON FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON WHAT THIS NEW LOW WILL DO...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE DEEPENING THE MOST AND THE ECMWF KEEPING IT BROAD AND WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE MARINE FORECAST DEVELOPS THE LOW...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE GFS...AND SHIFTS IT TO OFF THE NICARAGUAN AND HONDURAN COAST SUN THROUGH TUE. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 29N65W. THIS WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE FRI...MERGING WITH THE SLOWER TROUGH AHEAD OF IT BY EARLY SAT. THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES THE GFS EXPERIENCED EARLIER WERE NOT NOTED IN THE 12Z RUN...AND THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT MAINTAINING THE 20 TO 25 KT SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS IT AND THE FRONT SLIP EASTWARD. THE FRONT WILL STALL E-W OVER THE WATERS N OF ISLANDS BY SUN AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND EXTENDS OVER THE AREA SAT AND SUN. LONG PERIOD N SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA W OF 70W AND WILL BRING SEAS TO 8 FT AS FAR S AS 24N BY EARLY MON BEFORE DECAYING. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 24N E OF 86W...GMZ086. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN