000 AGXX40 KNHC 140714 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THIS COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS CURRENTLY DISSIPATING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...N WINDS TO 20 KT...FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT PRIMARILY IN THE NW GULF. A SECOND...STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE GULF LATER TODAY AND BRING N WINDS TO 20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRES MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WINDS DIMINISH OVER ALL BUT THE SE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST OVER THE SE GULF IS DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF PAULA. PAULA WAS A HURRICANE AS OF 11 PM EDT WITH WINDS TO 70 KT. THE 0228 UTC ASCAT PASS WENT DIRECTLY OVER PAULA AND SHOWED THAT THE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 33 KT RANGE EXTEND ONLY 90 NM AWAY FROM THE CENTER. PAULA IS FORECAST WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES E-NE TOWARD NORTHWESTERN CUBA THIS MORNING AND MAKE LANDFALL THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND...IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM BY FRIDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES E OF HAVANA. THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO LIE OVER GULF WATERS ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA THROUGH FRI MORNING. PAULA IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO A REMNANT LOW BY FRI EVENING AS THE SECOND GULF COLD FRONT TAKES ITS TOLL ON THE SYSTEM. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT E INTO THE SW N ATLC BY MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...LEAVING MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE GULF. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES DOMINATING THE NE PART OF THE AREA WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD BY THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHED NORTHEASTWARD FROM PAULA HAS REFLECTED A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SPOT LOW ALONG THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON DEVELOPING A LOW OVER FORECAST WATERS AND ONLY BRINGS SW WINDS TO 25 KT E OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS HAS BECOME EVEN STRONGER THAN THE RUN LAST NIGHT...NOW DEVELOPING GALE FORCE WINDS AROUND THIS LOW. AGAIN...GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK MAY BE OVER-INTENSIFYING THIS LOW IN THE GFS AS IT STAMPS OUT AROUND 2.9 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN SIX HOURS WITH THIS LOW AT ITS MOST INTENSE AS IT CROSSES 30N. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE GFS...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS TO BUILD WINDS TO AT LEAST 25 KT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED WELL N OF THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI. NW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO 8-12 FT OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HIGH PRES MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SETS UP FRESH TRADES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. MEANWHILE...WINDS REMAIN UNDER 20 KT AND SEAS UNDER 6 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH SUN...WITH THE NW SWELL MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE N PORTION OF THE AREA ON MON AND BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT. CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE PAULA OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS FORECAST WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES E-NE TOWARD NORTHWESTERN CUBA THIS MORNING AND MAKE LANDFALL THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND...IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM BY FRIDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES E OF HAVANA. THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO HUG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA THROUGH FRI MORNING...BUT SEAS IN THIS RATHER SHELTERED AND SHALLOW ARE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 12 FEET. PAULA IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO A REMNANT LOW BY FRI EVENING AS THE SECOND GULF COLD FRONT TAKES ITS TOLL ON THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE UKMET...CMC...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE ON ALLOWING AT LEAST SOME OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH PAULA TO BE LEFT BEHIND BY THE FRONT AND LINGER OVER THE NW GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST OF THESE SOLUTIONS...SO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SOLUTION IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE GULF TODAY WILL BRING 20 KT N WINDS THROUGH THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES N OF THE CARIBBEAN IS ALLOWING FRESH TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. FRESH TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .HURRICANE WARNING N OF 21N W OF 85W...AMZ082. GULF OF MEXICO... .HURRICANE WARNING S OF 24N E OF 86W...GMZ084 AND GMZ086. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER