000 AGXX40 KNHC 131904 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 304 PM EDT WED OCT 13 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLLAPSING HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OUT AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SLOWLY SSE ACROSS NW AND N CENTRAL GULF. THIS IS YIELDING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS ALL BUT THE SE QUARTER OF THE BASIN. PRES GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO FRESHEN ACROSS THE SE GULF TO N OF THE YUCATAN AS TINY PAULA HAS LIFTED N INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A 1518 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 KT N WINDS N OF THE YUCATAN N TO ABOUT 24N WITH ISOLATED SPOTS TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO FRESHEN THROUGH THE STRAITS AND JUST NW OF THE KEYS AS PAUL BEGINS A NE TURN SOON. THE COLD FRONT AND SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SE AND ALLOW FOR A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE N GULF THU EVENING AND NIGHT AND PROVIDE ANOTHER SURGE OF NLY WINDS OF 20 KT TO SPILL S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF TO THE W OF PAULA...AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF NLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 22N TO YIELD 25 KT THERE. AS PAULA MAKE THE E TURN ALONG THE NW COAST OR W PORTION OF CUBA LATE THU THROUGH EARLY SAT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL KICK UP TO T.S. STRENGTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE STRAITS AND SPREAD...BEFORE PAULA DISSIPATES QUICKLY ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL CUBA SAT INTO SUN. LUCKILY PAULA REMAINS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM IN TERMS OF CORE T.S. AND GREATER WINDS...AND THIS HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR LARGE WAVE GROWTH EXCEPT VERY NEAR THE CENTER AND WILL THUS LIKELY NOT BUILD SEAS ACROSS ANY PORTION OF THE S OR SE GULF TO BEYOND 9 FT. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES DOMINATING THE N HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD BY WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANDERING TROUGHS ACROSS FAR E AND SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE ACTED TO BLOCK ANY LLVL RIDGING INTO THE REGION AND HELPING TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SURFACE LOW ON COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS FRI AND SAT...WITH JUST A SMALL LOW ALONG THE LEADING PRE FRONTAL TROUGH SUGGESTED ACROSS FAR NE PORTION AND QUICKLY LIFTS OUT. HIGH PRES THEN BUILD INTO NW PORTIONS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND WILL FORCE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES INTO THE SE BAHAMAS AND NE CUBA BY SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE PAULA LIFTING SLOWLY N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BUT WITH VERY SMALL WIND FIELD AND LIMITED AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS LIKELY 60 NM AND LESS. BUOY 42056 IN THE NW CARIB PEAKED EARLY THIS MORNING AT ONLY 9 FT AND HAS SINCE DROPPED TO 5 FT. WEAK TROUGHING EXTENDS TO THE S-SE OF PAULA AND REMNANTS OF TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W OR SO MAINTAINS A WEAKNESS ACROSS THE FAR W CARIB THAT WILL LINGER FOR DAYS. FRESH TO STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS IN EXCESS OF 9 FT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EXTREME NW CARIB NEXT 12-18 HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AS PAULA MOVES SUFFICIENTLY INLAND ACROSS FAR W CUBA. OTHERWISE...FRESH ELY TRADES HAVE BUILT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PAST 24 HOURS YIELDING 25 KT ACROSS THE SRN CARIB S OF 14-15N...WITH SEVERAL SHIPS REPORTING 25 KT LAST 12 HOURS THERE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND FRONT ENTERING GULF AND SW N ATLC PUSHES ATLC HIGH TO THE E AND GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE BASIN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .HURRICANE WARNING N OF 20.5N W OF 85W...AMZ082. GULF OF MEXICO... .HURRICANE WARNING S OF 23N E OF 87W...GMZ084 AND GMZ086. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING