000 AGXX40 KNHC 130706 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 305 AM EDT WED OCT 13 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF ASIDE FROM THE SE GULF ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE PAULA TO THE S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY BE CHANGING AS A COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY TO THE TEXAS COAST AND IS MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE. A FEW ELEVATED PLATFORMS JUST OFF THE COAST HAVE SEE THEIR LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME N WINDS AROUND 20 KT OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF AND DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WED NIGHT...CARRYING N WINDS TO 20 KT IN ITS WAKE. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR WINDS AT OR ABOVE 20 KT WILL COME EARLY THU MORNING AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE FAR NW GULF. THIS FRONT WILL BRING 20 KT N WINDS OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF BY THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WINDS DIMINISH OVER ALL BUT THE SE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST OVER THE SE GULF IS DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE PAULA IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. PAULA IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS N OF COZUMEL AROUND SUNRISE AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E-NE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TOWARD WESTERN CUBA THROUGH THU MORNING. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND ON THU EVENING...IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AND FURTHER DIMINISH TO A DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY SAT NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO LIE OVER GULF WATERS ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA THROUGH FRI EVENING. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES DOMINATING THE N HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD BY THE TROUGHING MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FROM THE SOUTH...THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SHEDDING SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS ON ITS WAY TOWARD THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT BY THU NIGHT...BUT VARYING WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SPOT LOW ALONG THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND WINDS AROUND IT...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP A LOW AND BUILDING WINDS TO 30 KT AROUND IT AS IT LIFT N OF THE AREA THU NIGHT. THE GFS REMAINS ON THE MORE VIGOROUS SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD A DEEPER SOLUTION AND BUILDS WINDS TO 25 KT OVER FORECAST WATERS AS THE LOW LIFT N OF THE AREA THU NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL NOW BUILD IN WINDS TO 20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT/TROUGH AT THAT TIME. AFRAID TO GO STRONGER THAN THAT AS THE MODELS DO APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT INFLUENCED BY GRID SCALE FEEDBACK...ESPECIALLY THE GFS WHICH STAMPS OUT 2.7 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OVER A 6 HR PERIOD. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THIS ENERGY WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE AMPLIFYING DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SE COAST THU AND FRI AND THEY ARE SIMILAR WITH THE SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...WINDS REMAIN UNDER 20 KT AND SEAS UNDER 6 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE PAULA OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 85 KT BY MORNING AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E-NE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TOWARD WESTERN CUBA THROUGH THU MORNING. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND ON THU EVENING...IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AND FURTHER DIMINISH TO A DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY SAT NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. PAULA HAS A VERY SMALL WIND FIELD...AND THE 12 FT SEA RADII ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXTEND MUCH MORE THAN THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. BUOY 42056 CAME WITHIN ABOUT 50 NM OF THE CENTER AND HAS ONLY SEEN SEAS TO 9 FT. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN THE SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE AS THIS IS STILL AN INTENSE SYSTEM. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W IS FORECAST TO PASS S OF PAULA TODAY INTO THU AND MAY HELP FEED SOME MOISTURE TO THE SYSTEM AS IT DOES. CURRENTLY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES THAT HAS MOVED IN N OF THE CARIBBEAN IS ALLOWING FRESH TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. FRESH TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .HURRICANE WARNING N OF 19N W OF 84W...AMZ082. GULF OF MEXICO... .HURRICANE WARNING S OF 23N E OF 87W...GMZ084 AND GMZ086. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER