000 AGXX40 KNHC 101828 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 3 FT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST OVER THE SE GULF BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES TO THE S OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. NE WINDS TO 15 KT ARE STILL NOTED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH MON. THIS HIGH PRES WILL THEN SHIFT W AND DISSIPATE BY WED AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL SINK S THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF WED AND DISSIPATE THU. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER THE GULF REGION AND LOWER PRES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS WED AND THU. EXPECT WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AND BUILDING SEAS TO 4 TO 6 FT ESPECIALLY S OF 23N INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SW N ATLC... A SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA MAINLY N OF 25N DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD RESULTING IN MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS IN THE SW N ATLC N OF 27N AND ELY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE IN MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 25N. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 23N65W TO 20N71W WILL LINGER OVER THE SE PORTION THROUGH WED BEFORE DISSIPATING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BUILDS N THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN BAHAMAS WED AND THU. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR N TO NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT W OF THE TROUGH AXIS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE W-NW OR NW AT AROUND 8 KT. CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N-NE OF THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW PRES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITHIN AROUND 140 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. LINES OF LOW CLOUDS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW CENTER ARE MAINLY NOTED ON THE SE SEMICIRCLE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. STRONG NLY WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL S INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO NEAR 84W AND AS FAR N AS THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONGEST ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W WILL PASS 70W BY MON MORNING AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH THU. WINDS ARE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS BEGINNING TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...AS OTTO SHIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA...A RIDGE WILL BUILD WWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC. AS A RESULT...E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NLY SWELL WILL RAISE SEAS TO 6 FT TUE THROUGH THU. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR