000 AGXX40 KNHC 100622 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1018 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS FOUND ACROSS THE GULF. THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST OVER THE SE GULF BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES TO THE S OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. NE WINDS TO 15 KT LIE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF MON AND WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE NE GULF TUE AND WED. SE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP TO 15 KT OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF SUN NIGHT BEFORE THE HIGH WEAKENS WHEN THE PRES GRADIENT IS ALLOWED TO BUILD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE NW GULF COAST EARLY WED MORNING AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE IT. 15 KT NE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO EXPAND N OVER THE SE GULF ON TUE AND WED AS THE PRES GRADIENT BUILDS BETWEEN THE LOW PRES IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN BY WED/THU OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH SOME OF THE MODELS SHOWING SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT REMAIN IN THE CARIBBEAN. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE WIND AND SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH OTTO HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ALONG 31N SUN THROUGH TUE WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS IN THE SW N ATLC N OF 27N AND ELY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE IN MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 25N...WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF A SURFACE TROUGH LEFT OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF OTTO. THE MODELS DIFFER WITH SPECIFICS OF THE STRENGTH AND NUMBER OF SURFACE WAVES THAT DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH...BUT OVERALL KEEP THE TROUGH IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA IN THE SE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE UNTIL IT DISSIPATES WED. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE MODEL HANDLING OF ANY OF THESE WAVES...A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WAS USED WHICH KEEPS WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. WINDS REMAIN UNDER 20 KT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT N-NW INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N-NE OF THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW PRES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER EXCEPT 60 NM SE QUADRANT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. STRONG NLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FUNNELING S INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE 0210 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS FAR N AS THE COAST OF CUBA. WINDS AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONGEST ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST BECOMES ESPECIALLY UNCERTAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED AND THU S OF THE LOW. THIS IS ASSUMING THE LOW SHIFTS N BY THAT TIME. IF NOT...THERE COULD BE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE TROPICAL WAVE. ELSEWHERE...AS OTTO SHIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN N OF THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR TRADE WINDS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH THU. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER