000 AGXX40 KNHC 090624 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 AM EDT SAT OCT 09 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS FOUND ACROSS THE GULF. THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST OVER THE SE GULF BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES TO THE SE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. 15 KT NE WINDS CURRENTLY LIE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH 10-15 KT NE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF MON AND WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE NE GULF TUE AND WED WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. SE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP TO 15 KT OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF MON BEFORE THE HIGH WEAKENS WHEN THE PRES GRADIENT IS ALLOWED TO BUILD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE NW GULF COAST WED MORNING. NE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 KT OVER THE SE GULF YET AGAIN ON TUE AND WED AS THE PRES GRADIENT BUILDS BETWEEN THE STATIONARY TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRES PASSING TO THE N. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM OTTO WAS CENTERED E OF THE AREA NEAR 27.8N 60.8W AT 0300 UTC AND IS QUICKLY MOVING NE WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. THE 0052 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS SOME 20-25 KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH OTTO CONTINUING TO CLIP THE NE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE AND THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE WITH SHIPS NWS0028 NEAR 29N66W AND DDSC2 NEAR 22N62W CONFIRMING THESE CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...WINDS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT WHILE NE SWELL CURRENTLY TO 9 FT IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT OVER BOTH THE SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ALONG 31N SUN THROUGH TUE WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS IN THE SW N ATLC N OF 27N AND ELY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE IN MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 25N...WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LEFT OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF OTTO. THE MODELS DIFFER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THIS TROUGHING...WITH THE GFS AMONG THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS DEVELOPING A SPOT LOW ALONG THE TROUGH. A WEAKER SOLUTION LIKE THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FAVORED HERE. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 56W HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY LESS DEFINED BY ITS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND WINDS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF AREA BY TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM NEAR 17N76W TO 09N81W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AS IT REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. STRONG NLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FUNNELING S INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AROUND MON WHEN THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN BY THIS TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 56W IS EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED BY THIS BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CARIBBEAN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WAVE COULD BREAK UP THIS TROUGHING OR VICE VERSA. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO WED...BUT SHIFT ITS ORIENTATION TO MORE NW TO SE. AS HURCN OTTO SHIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN N OF THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR TRADE WINDS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH WED. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER