000 AGXX40 KNHC 061828 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT WED OCT 06 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH PRES GRADIENT TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE N TO NE WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF WITH 10-15 KT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND THE 20 KT WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF FRI AND INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF SUN WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. SW N ATLC... ATLC STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL DRIFT E AND DISSIPATE FROM 31N70W TO EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS IN THE 9 TO 13 FT RANGE ARE NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT PER SURFACE DATA AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS. A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPED N OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. AT 11 AM EDT...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN IS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 67.9W. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO 23.5N 68.3W TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM WITH MAX WIND OF 35 KT G TO 45 KT. THEN THE STORM WILL MOVE TO 24.2N 68.2W THU MORNING...NEAR 24.9N 67.2W THU NIGHT...NEAR 26.1N 65.2W FRI MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 22N TO 27N E OF 70W. BASED ON THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRI. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY WHEN THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND THE TROPICAL STORM WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF STRONG NLY WINDS MAINLY W OF 70W AND E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE FRI THEN DECREASE SAT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER E. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN N OF PUERTO RICO...FORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS TONIGHT...WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE NW AND SW PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA MAINLY W OF 80W MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE FRI INTO SAT...BUT WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF 81W. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IN ABOUT 48-72 HOURS ALONG A TROUGH OF LOW PRES THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM SOUTH HAITI TO NEAR 11N80W. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 22N TO 27N E OF 70W... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 23N TO 28N E OF 66W FRI... CARIBBEAN... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR