000 AGXX40 KNHC 261851 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 252 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO MERGE WITH TWO PRE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH THE MERGED FRONT EXPECTED FROM THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO NORTHERN MEXICO MON MORNING...THEN FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 95.5W TUE MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL...GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MEANDER THROUGH THU AS THE SYSTEM IN THE W CARIB LIFTS OUT. SEE BELOW. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL BE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 8 TO 9 FT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH THU. UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRES THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NW OR W CARIBBEAN IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A BROAD CYCLONIC OR MONSOONAL GYRE HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE TROPICAL EPAC FOR THE PAST WEEK OR LONGER AND NOW EXTENDS E ACROSS SRN MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND INTO THE W CARIB. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING VARIOUS EVOLUTIONS OF A LARGE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE W CARIB...SEPARATE FROM THE REMNANTS OF MATTHEW. STLT IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRL NEAR THE POSITION OF THE GFS SOLUTION...NEAR 18N84.5W. SHARP CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED IN STLT IMAGERY ATTM TO THE SE OF THIS FEATURE...AND CURRENTLY THIS WOULD SEEM THE LIKELY LOCATION FOR A LOW TO DEVELOP. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TO LIFT A LOW OUT OF THE NW CARIB TUE INTO WED AS THE CYCLONIC GYRE BECOMES MORE N TO S ORIENTED IN RESPONSE TO COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE. FRESH TO STRONG NLY FLOW WILL THEN LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH WED AT LEAST...WITH SEAS TO 8 FT AND HIGHER...AND POTENTIALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SE GULF AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IN ADVANCE OF A LIFTING LOW. GFS SUGGESTING A SECOND IMPULSE OF LOW DEVELOPING IN W CARIB LATER IN THE WEEK AND LIFTING OUT AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE VERY ACTIVE...SQUALLY...AND WET WEATHER FOR FLORIDA AND THE FAR E AND SE GULF DURING THIS PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... REMNANTS OF MATTHEW SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT FOR SURE...BUT MONSOON GYRE IN WHICH IT IS ABSORBED IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SELY FLOW GENERALLY PREVAILS TO THE E OF 75W. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION AND INCREASING SLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SEEN TO THE E AND SE OF A DEVELOPING LOW DESCRIBED IN MORE DETAIL ABOVE...WITH GFS 25 TO NEAR 30 KT BY WED...AND ECMWF SLOWER IN LIFTING THE LOW OUT OF NW CARIB...SUGGESTING LINGERING N-NE TO S-SW ALIGNED GYRE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIB W OF 80W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS OF EVENTUAL SOLUTION...WHATEVER THE MAGNITUDE AND EXACT LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THERE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...PROBABLY BEGINNING LATE MON INTO TUE AND CONTINUING THROUGH THU. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TRADE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST N OF THE AREA THROUGH MON...THEN SHIFT E TUE THROUGH THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES JUST OFFSHORE THE SE U.S. COAST TUE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC BEFORE STALLING AND MEANDERING THROUGH THU. MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUE THROUGH THU AS THE FLOW OPENS UP IN ADVANCE OF THE MEANDERING FRONT AND WHATEVER FEATURE(S) LIFT OUT OF THE NW CARIB. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM AND TROPICAL POTENTIAL. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING