000 AGXX40 KNHC 081857 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 257 PM EDT WED SEP 08 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... REMNANT LOW OF HERMINE CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY N TO NEAR OK-TX BORDER AND MAINTAINING SELY FLOW ACROSS W HALF OF BASIN...WITH 20 KT FLOW GRADUALLY SHRINKING AND BECOMING CONFINED TO UPPER MEXICAN AND TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...WITH SEAS THERE 6 TO 8 FT AND FALLING. ELSEWHERE E-SE TO SE WINDS PREVAIL WITH SEAS 5 FT AND LESS. WINDS AND SEAS TO GENERALLY FURTHER SUBSIDE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THU. BROAD ROUGH ACROSS NW CARIB AND FLORIDA MOVING W INTO SE GULF AND ACCOMPANIED BY ELY WINDS SURGE AT SURFACE OF 15-20 KT...AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT W OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 87/88W THU MORNING AND WASH OUT IN SELY FLOW. E TO SE WINDS AND HIGH PRES TO PREVAIL BEHIND THIS WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH SUN. SW N ATLC... LLVL WIND SURGE MOVING ACROSS SRN WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH THE BROAD TROUGH MOVING INTO SE GULF AND N PORTIONS OF GASTON REMNANTS STIRRING UP SEAS 5-8 FT S OF 24N AND W OF 68W THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ACTIVE WX IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES W OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT ATLC WATERS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS THROUGH THU MORNING. WIND AND SEAS THERE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH NEXT FE DAYS AS REMNANTS OF GASTON MOVE W-SW AND WEAKEN FURTHER ACROSS THE CARIB...THUS WEAKENING GRADIENT. ELSEWHERE WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE NOSING INTO THE AREA WILL SLIDE E-NE AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SINK INTO N PORTIONS BY SUN. NEWLY NAMED T.S. IGOR WILL BECOME A PLAYER IN THE FORECAST BEYOND 6 DAYS AS IT MOVES NW TOWARDS E PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ELY SWELL WILL ARRIVE PRIOR TO IGOR. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... E-SE FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO 15 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS PER RECENT ASCAT PASS WITH LIGHT FLOW ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT NEAR REMNANTS OF GASTON...WHERE 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS TO 6 FT ARE LIKELY OCCURRING S OF HISPANIOLA TO 16N. SCATTEROMETER PASSES AND STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE LOW HAS OPENED UP INTO A TROUGH AND IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES W-SW INTO THE CENTRAL AND W CARIB. OF INTEREST IS THE BROAD WEAK LOW PRES AND AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE S PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND THE SE CARIB. S TO SW LLVL FLOW CAN BE SEEN MOVING FROM S AMERICA INTO THE CARIB AND ATLC WATERS AND INDUCING SOME CYCLONIC TURNING. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS NOT BULLISH ON ANY CYCLOGENESIS...ALL MODELS SHOW A LOW OR SHARP TROUGH GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE CARIB AND SHIFTING W AND NW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL. ALL THIS SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY OCCURRING ACROSS THESE WATERS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT N AND NW NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE CARIB AND TOPICAL N ATLC S OF 17N TO YIELD ACTIVE WEATHER. AN INCREASE OF ELY WINDS TO 15-20 KT IS LIKELY ACROSS N PORTIONS OF ANY TROFFING OR LOW THAT WOULD DEVELOP...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FT. THIS AREA WARRANTS MONITORING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS FOR IGOR...THIS TC IS A LONG WAY FROM THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 55W BY DAY 6. AS INDICATED ABOVE...ELY SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF IGOR. SEE LATEST BULLETINS AND DISCUSSIONS ON THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING