000 AGXX40 KNHC 221845 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT SUN AUG 22 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 25N89W ALLOWING FOR A RATHER WEAK PRES GRADIENT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE GULF. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF WATERS FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 82W AND 89W MOVING WSW. GUSTY AND SHIFTING WINDS ARE VERY POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIND DIRECTION FROM THE S-SW NW OF THE HIGH...NW-N TO THE NE OF THE HIGH...NE-E TO THE SE OF THE HIGH AND E-SE WINDS OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF. WINDS RANGE FROM 5-15 KT...WITH LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WINDS AT AND CLOSE TO THE HIGH CENTER AND 15-20 KT IN THE SW GULF. THE OBSERVATIONS ALSO REVEAL THAT SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS...3-5 FT IN THE FAR WESTERN WATERS AND 4-6 FT IN THE SW GULF ZONE. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF IN ABOUT 24 HOURS ...AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW MOVES OFF THE SE CONUS INTO THE N CENTRAL PORTION BEGINNING MON THROUGH TUE...THEN TRANSLATE NW INTO THE NW GULF ZONE THROUGH THU BEFORE WEAKENING NEAR THE NE TEXAS COAST LATE THU INTO FRI...BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE RATHER LOW SIDE NEAR IT. SW N ATLC... A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 27N65W TO S FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 27N68W TO JUST W OF HAITI MOVES W AT 16 KT. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS REVEAL PRETTY LIGHT CONDITIONS OVER THIS AREA WITH WINDS FROM THE S-SW N OF THE RIDGE AND PRETTY MUCH VARIABLE 5-10 KT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT E OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE BUOYS 41046 AT 24N71W AND BUOY 41043 AT 21N65W ARE REPORTING SE 15 KT WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN COMBINATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS RESULTING IN ENHANCED SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY S OF 28N E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE WILL LIFT N TO NEAR 28N WED THROUGH FRI AS LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION PRECEDED BY INCREASING SW WINDS TO 20 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH MON...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS NW BAHAMAS AND TUE AND WED. BRIEF ELY SURGES OF 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE WAVE S OF ABOUT 22N INTO EARLY WED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AS NOTED IN PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING ARE OCCURRING S OF 17N AND W OF 85W. THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH AT LEAST THU. MAX SEAS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 6 FT...SUBSIDING TO 5 FT LATE TUE THROUGH FRI. ELY TRADES OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS EVIDENT IN ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES DUE TO BUILDING ATLC RIDGING NE OF THE CARIBBEAN AND AHEAD OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX...BUT THEN DIMINISH THROUGH FRI AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THE DEPRESSION TRACKING NW. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT PRETTY MUCH COVER THIS AREA...EXCEPT TO THE S OF 12N WHERE LIGHTER NE-E WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE NOTED. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT OVER THESE WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 64W MOVING W 16 KT WILL REACH TO NEAR 70W LATE MON MORNING...NEAR 75W TUE AND MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TUE THROUGH WED. A TROPICAL WAVE E OF AREA WILL ENTER THE EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON... APPROACH THE LESSER LESSER ANTILLES EARLY MON...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER MON THROUGH TUE...ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED...AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE NE PORTION OF TROPICAL N ATLC LATE TUE THROUGH FRI THU ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS IN NE SWELLS...AS A TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE PER LATEST NHC ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ISSUED AT 1500 UTC THIS MORNING...TRACKS TO THE NW WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM TO THE NE OF 22N55W. WE ARE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON AND THIS SCENARIO IS CERTAINLY IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE