000 AGXX40 KNHC 011857 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT SUN AUG 01 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE SW TO THE CENTRAL GULF THEN MORE WLY TO NEAR 23N93W...WITH SHALLOW TO MODERATE CNVTN CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN WITH MAX SEAS NEAR 3 FT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE ATLC RIDGE E OF AREA WILL PUSH THE N PORTION OF THE TROUGH W LATE TONIGHT AND MON AND GIVE IT A MORE N TO S ALIGNMENT. A TROPICAL MOVING W INTO THE EXTREME SW GULF WILL CONTINUE W. THE WEAK N-S TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO PSN ALONG 91W BY MON MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY TUE MORNING. THE WEAK 1013 MB SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF WILL DISSIPATE AS A WEAK RIDGE SHIFTS NW TO THE TX COAST AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE E. AS THE TROUGH DISSIPATES MON NIGHT A RIDGE WILL BUILD W ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH HIGH PRES DEVELOPING OCCASIONALLY ALONG THE RIDGE EXTENDING E TO W OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SO EXPECTING MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KT AND SEAS 1 TO 2 FT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SW N ATLC... FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE AREA W OF 70W WITH ACTIVE CNVTN ALONG THE NW SECTION...AND TO THE S OF THE REMAINDER...EXTENDING SW INTO THE FAR NW BAHAMAS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER A LITTLE SE TONIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN AND DRIFT SLOWLY NW NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS SW OF BERMUDA SUPPORTED BY THE DIFFLUENCE E OF THE W ATLC UPPER TROUGH. SW FLOW N OF RIDGE AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE 15 TO 20 KT THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT BUT DIMINISH TO 15 KT MON THEN FURTHER DIMINISH TO 10 KT TUE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ELY FLOW WELL S OF THE RIDGE WILL MAX AT 15 KT THROUGHOUT SE BAHAMAS AND ATLC WATERS N OF HISPANIOLA BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT N THROUGH NE OF PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS AREA MON NIGHT BEHIND A WEAK AND SUBTLE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ELY TRADE WIND SWELL GRADUALLY BUILDING SEA OVER 6 FT TUE...AND FURTHER LATER IN THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE W CENTRAL CARIB ALONG 79/80W CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH TUTT TO ITS NW TO FLARE VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION S OF 16.5N AND W OF 74W. SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ALONG THE N PORTION ARE MOVING INTO A SAL ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE LONG SQUALL LINES WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS. WAVE WILL CONTINUE W AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND GULF OF HONDURAS MON AND THEN COMPLETELY INLAND TUE. SELY WINDS BEHIND WAVE AROUND 20 KT BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT N OF 14N. WEAK SUBTLE WAVE MOVING TOWARDS LESSER ANTILLES ATTM HAS MODEST WIND SURGE BEHIND IT WITH WINDS NEAR 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS E CARIB NEXT 48 HRS. COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 37/38W AND LOW PRES AREA LINGERING AHEAD OF IT PAST FEW DAYS IS BECOMING INTERESTING. ELONGATED LOW PRES 35-37W IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE GRADUALLY MERGE AND CONSOLIDATE THIS LOW PRES AREA INTO A LOW AND PROBABLE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HRS. STRONG 20-25 KT WIND SURGE HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TOP OF THIS LOW PRES AREA AND WILL MOVE AHEAD BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND REACH THE N PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TUE NIGHT AND ACROSS THE NE CARIB AND INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS WED...FOLLOWED BY THE TRAILING DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF TIMING AND TRAJECTORY ARE PREFERRED PERSONALLY AND SEEM TO BE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE MODEL MEANS. AS THE LOW PRES BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED MODELS OUTPUT SHOULD BE MORE RELIABLE. ALL INTERESTS OF THE NE CARIB SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING