000 AGXX40 KNHC 010616 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EDT SUN AUG 01 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A N-S TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE IT MERGES WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE ATLC RIDGE E OF AREA WILL PUSH THE N PORTION OF THE TROUGH W. THE WAVE WILL OF COURSE CONTINUE W. THE RESULT IS A WEAK N-S TROUGH SHIFTING W ACROSS THE GULF TO PSN ALONG 90W SUNSET TODAY...93W MIDDAY MON...WITH WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE WEAK TROUGH LOSING IDENTITY MON NIGHT PERHAPS OVER COASTAL NE MEXICO AND E TX. THE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF WILL DISSIPATE AS A WEAK RIDGE SHIFTS NW TO THE TX COAST AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE E. AS THE TROUGH DISSIPATES MON NIGHT A RIDGE WILL BUILD W ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH HIGH PRES DEVELOPING OCCASIONALLY ALONG THE RIDGE EXTENDING E TO W OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SO EXPECTING MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KT AND SEAS 1 TO 2 FT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SW N ATLC... A FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM 31N70W TO NE FL AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A LITTLE FURTHER S STALLING ALONG A PSN FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL FL BY SUNSET TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE W AGAIN ON TUE AS A CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W WITH AN AXIS ALONG 30N WED THROUGH THU. SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS SW OF BERMUDA SUPPORTED BY THE DIFFLUENCE E OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH. SW FLOW N OF RIDGE AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT TODAY BUT DIMINISH TO 15 KT TONIGHT AND MON THEN FURTHER DIMINISH TO 10 KT TUE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ELY FLOW WELL S OF THE RIDGE WILL MAX AT 15 KT THROUGHOUT SE BAHAMAS AND ATLC WATERS N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W HAS MOVED W AT 17 KT OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD MOVE WAVE THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W ATTM HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 KT AND THIS SHOULD TAKE THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN ISLANDS EARLY TONIGHT...TO ALONG 62W MON...68W TUE...73W WED....AND NEAR 78W THU. AN ELY SURGE PRECEDES THIS WAVE AND IS NOW ALONG 60W. LOW PRES NEAR 09N33W IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WNW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS IT REACHES NEAR 16N55W WED AND NEAR 19N60W THU. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON