000 AGXX40 KNHC 300606 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EDT FRI JUL 30 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK FRONTAL TYPE TROUGH WILL MEANDER...OR DEVELOP AND BE REPLACED BY A SECOND SIMILAR TROUGH....OVER THE NE GULF WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL ALSO MEANDER OVER THE NW WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN BECOME ABSORBED IN A RIDGE BUILDING W ALONG 28N SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON NIGHT. THEN THE PATTERN REPEATS AS A TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE NE WATERS AGAIN EFFECTIVELY SEPARATING THE ATLC RIDGE FROM ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. SEEMS THE COASTAL TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF WILL APPEAR EACH DAY AND DRIFT W OVER LAND EACH NIGHT. CURRENT SEAS OF 3-5 FT WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT THIS WEEKEND. SW N ATLC... A FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES E TO W ALONG 33N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE NEAR 31N68W ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT BUT ANOTHER CLUSTER CURRENTLY NEAR 30N75W SEEMS TO ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. FURTHER S...AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 29N55W TO 24N80W. THIS RIDGE SHOULD RETREAT E TONIGHT ALLOWING A FRONTAL TROUGH TO ENTER THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 32N78W TO 28N80W EARLY SAT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE E STALLING BEFORE REACHING BERMUDA SAT NIGHT THEN MOVE BACK NW SUN AND BE N OF AREA MON NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 KT AND THIS MOTION SHOULD MOVE WAVE THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS BY EARLY SAT NIGHT. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FLARING S OF JAMAICA UNDER UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ATTM. A SECOND WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN MOVING W AT ABOUT 20 KT. ASSUMING THAT MOTION CONTINUES WAVE SHOULD BE ALONG 73W SAT...80W SUN...AND 87W MON. A THIRD WAVE ALONG 33W TONIGHT IS SHOWING SOME CYCLONIC ROTATION WITH A SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR 08N33W AND ESTIMATED AT 1010 MB. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS LOW WILL MOVE NW REACHING A PSN N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEXT WED. I WILL MOVE ITS PARENT TROPICAL WAVE W AT 18 KT ON GRAPHICS TO ALONG 55W SUN NIGHT AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN LATE MON NIGHT. THE ITCZ IS STRETCHED N ALONG 14-15N AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE TSTMS. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON