000 AGXX40 KNHC 290616 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT THU JUL 29 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK TROUGH HAS DRIFTED OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF AND WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH A NEW TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A 1021 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N91W WITH A RIDGE W TO THE NE TEXAS COAST WILL MOVE TO THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF FRI AS A FRONTAL TROUGH CLIPS THE FAR NE PART FRI THROUGH SUN. BUOY AND NEARSHORE LAND STATION OBSERVATION SITES INDICATE E-SE WINDS OVER THE W GULF AND PRIMARILY NE-E OVER THE E GULF...WHILE SEAS ARE 3-5 FT OVER THE W GULF AND 1-3 FT OVER THE E GULF. LIGHT WINDS OF 5-15 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS BECOMING 1-3 FT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF FRI THROUGH SUN. SW N ATLC... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 30N68W TO 31N77W AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS JUST S OF THE BOUNDARY. 1019 MB HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED JUST NE OF THE BAHAMAS WITH A NE TO SW RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 28N55W THROUGH THE HIGH TO 25N79W. S OF THE RIDGE WINDS ARE E-SE 10-15 KT WITH 5-10 KT VARIABLE WINDS ALONG AND N OF THE RIDGE AXIS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE RIDGE RETREATING EASTWARD FRI THROUGH SUN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES FRI THROUGH SUN. WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SW TO W 10-15 KT OCCASIONALLY TO 20 KT E OF 75W FRI AND SAT. ALSO EXPECT E-SE WINDS OCCASIONALLY TO 20 KT S OF 21N MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 68W/69W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH MAINLY 10-15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN EXCEPT S OF 11N WHERE 5-10 KT VARIABLE WINDS EXIST. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH TO ALONG 73W TONIGHT...THEN WILL ACCELERATE AS IT MOVE MORE NW TO ALONG 79W/80W FRI NIGHT... THEN WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES ALONG 83W/84W SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 15N. THE RECENT ASCAT PASS ALSO CAPTURED NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT W OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 12N AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO E-SE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION ONCE THE WAVE PASSES. THE WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN EARLY FRI THEN WILL REACH TO ALONG 65W FRI NIGHT...AND TO ALONG 67W/68W SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL OCCUR IN THE CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT ONCE THE WAVE PASSES. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-9 FT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT DUE TO A LONG NE-E FETCH OF 15-20 KT WINDS BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ATLC HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA. THE SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY