000 AGXX40 KNHC 261818 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG 28N. BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...EXCEPT SE TO S WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-3 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A TROUGH/REMNANT OF TROPICAL WAVE HAS REACHED THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SURGE IN WINDS ACROSS THE GULF S OF 25N TONIGHT THROUGH THU. SW N ATLC... A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N73W WITH AN E-W ORIENTED RIDGE ALONG 28N. BASED ON THE LATEST ASCAT PASS AND BUOY OBS...WINDS S OF THE RIDGE AND E OF THE HIGH CENTER ARE GENERALLY NE TO E 10-15 KT. WINDS S OF THE RIDGE AND W OF THE HIGH CENTER ARE GENERALLY E TO SE 10-15 KT. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ASCAT PASS INDICATES A POCKET OF NE-E 20 KT WINDS CONFINED BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. N OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND E OF THE HIGH CENTER WINDS ARE GENERALLY W TO NW AT 10 TO 15 KT...AND N OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND W OF THE HIGH CENTER WINDS ARE GENERALLY SW TO W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE LATEST BUOY REPORTS AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS RANGING FROM 3-4 FT. MODELS FORECAST THE HIGH TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY S THROUGH TUE...THEN SE TO NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WED AND THU AS A COLD FRONT REACHES THE SE STATES THU AND FRI. WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME SW 10-15 KT WITH SEAS CHANGING VERY LITTLE...IF AT ALL. NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD CONTINUE BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH EARLY THU UNDER A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... LATEST ASCAT PASS INDICATES NE TO E WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF ARE 15 TO 20 KT. LATEST SHIP AND BUOY OBS INDICATE SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-12 FT IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...4 TO 6 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 7 TO 9 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LOWER SEAS...IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT WERE NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ZONE AND IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS RELATIVELY WEAK...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT WINDS AND SEAS. A STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE IS FURTHER EAST. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE THU NIGHT. A WIND SURGE AND RESULTING INCREASE IN SEAS PRECEDES THIS WAVE...AND IS EXPECTED TO START TO IMPACT THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE WED NIGHT. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AL