000 AGXX40 KNHC 231757 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010 UPDATED DEPRESSION THREE TO TROPICAL STORM BONNIE AND THE WARNINGS SECTION FOR BREAKPOINTS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. TROPICAL STORM BONNIE...FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS EXTREME S FL THIS AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE NW TO LANDFALL OVER SE LA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES AS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ALWAYS EXISTS. STRONGEST WINDS AND CONVECTION IS NE OF CENTER OVER NW BAHAMAS WITH WIND COMPONENT ELY ACROSS THE DEEPER N TO S BAHAMA CHANNELS...THUS LIMITING SEAS HEIGHT DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT HIGHEST SEAS TO MAYBE 12 FT NE OF BAHAMA CHAIN NEAR 25.5N 76.5W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN SUBSIDING. AFTER EXPLORING ALL WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE...AND ASSUMING BONNIE STRENGTHENS AS FORECAST...EXPECT MAX SEAS TO GRADUALLY BUILD TO 16 FT GULF OF MEXICO NE OF CENTER SAT INTO EARLY SUN PRIOR TO LANDFALL. RIDGE OVER ATLC ALONG 31N TODAY WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 29N SUN THEN BUILD W ACROSS FL AND E GULF IN WAKE OF BONNIE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER SW GULF WILL SHIFT W OF AREA TONIGHT. LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG ROUGHLY 54W ATTM WILL CONTINUE W AT FAIRLY GOOD SPEED THROUGH ENTIRE TROPICAL WATERS TO ALONG 70W SAT NIGHT AND TO ALONG 83W MON NIGHT. WAVE APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY DRY WITH CONVECTION ONLY ENHANCED NEAR 16N60W ATTM. GRADIENT W OF WAVE ALREADY ENHANCING ELY WINDS OVER E CARIBBEAN TODAY WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING TO CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 35W THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH ALONG 55W MON AND ENTER E CARIBBEAN TUE. WARNINGS... SW ATLC... .AMZ080...TS WRNG FROM 23N TO 26N W OF 78W... CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ080...NONE. TS CONDS EXPECTED N OF 28N E OF 92W. .GMZ084...TS WRNG N OF 25N. .GMZ086...TS WRNG FROM 24N TO 29N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON