000 AGXX40 KNHC 160812 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 410 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 2010 UPDATED TO INCLUDE REFERENCE TO ASCAT DATA UNDER SW N ATLC MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE AREA SHOW RATHER LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY FROM THE E-SE...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION WHERE WINDS ARE SE TO S IN LIGHT SLY RETURN FLOW. LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS REVEALED LOW SEAS THROUGHOUT A TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF ROUGHLY ALONG 89W S OF 26N IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0330 UTC LAST NIGHT INDICATED A WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO E W OF THE TROUGH AND E TO SE TO THE E OF THE TROUGH IT. ASIDE FROM CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF TODAY...AND IN THEN IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SW GULF ZONE AND SE PORTION OF THE NW GULF ZONE THIS EVENING AND SAT MORNING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE THE TROUGH THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE SAT AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS. THE REGIONAL NAM FROM 00 UTC LAST NIGHT IS THE OUTLIER INDICATING THAT A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER THE NW WATERS TONIGHT...AND BEGINS TO TRACK NW AND N SAT EVENING INTO SUN AND REACHES THE NE TEXAS COAST SUN NIGHT. WILL DISCOUNT THIS SOLN FOR NOW AND GO WITH CONSENSUS WITH REGARDS TO TRACK AND ULTIMATE OUTCOME OF THE LOW. A 1018 MB HIGH PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 28N93W WITH WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS OR SO...THEN BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE NEAR 26N/27N. THE RIDGE WILL THEN LIFT N OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO MON. ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR SE PORTION LATE SUN INTO MON... THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE E GULF S OF ABOUT 27N MON...AND INTO MIDDLE GULF TO NEAR 90W BY TUE AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER SURGE OF INCREASING E TO SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE TROUGH DUE TO THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ATLC RIDGING NE OF THE AREA AND THE TROUGH. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ZONES UNDER BROAD LOW PRES SUSTAINED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH ROUGHLY ALONG 83W FROM 12N TO 18N AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CUBA WITH A TROUGH SE TO 17N76W. A TROPICAL IS ALONG 67W S OF 16N MOVING W 13 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LARGE CLUSTERS OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO THE S OF 14N AND W OF 71W. THE WAVE IS PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR 72W EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN TO NEAR 76W SAT EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE AREA OF BROAD LOW PRES LATER ON SAT NIGHT AS IT ADVANCES FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THE TIGHTEST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA W OF ABOUT 70W THROUGH SUN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE AREA ALONG 49W IS FORECAST TO APPROACH 55W SAT AND MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUN THEN THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. MEANWHILE A TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NE TO 22N58W WILL SHIFT NW OF TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE FAR SE WATERS OF THE SW N ATLC INTO TONIGHT. ASCAT DATA FROM NEAR 0200 UTC ALONG BUOY REPORTS NOTED A SWATH OF NE 20 KT WINDS W OF THE TROUGH WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. E OF THE TROUGH...E-SE WINDS OF 15 KT ARE OCCURRING. A TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC SUN...AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON...REACHING THE CENTRAL PORTION TUE. THIS WAVE WILL FOLLOWED AGAIN BY INCREASING E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN 00 UTC RUNS SIMILAR WITH THIS DEPICTION OF THE WINDS E OF THE THE WAVE...BUT WITH MOST OF THE 20 KT WINDS TO BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS AND N OF THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SW N ATLC. LOOKING AT THE PARALLEL VERSION OF THE GFS...IT ALSO AGREES THAT BULK OF INCREASED ELY WINDS E OF THE WAVE SHOULD BE ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE ISLANDS WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHTEST. THE VARIOUS WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE DOES NOT BUILD SEAS THAT HIGH ACROSS THESE WATERS BEHIND THIS WAVE. IT KEEPS MAXIMUM SEAS CONFINED TO N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE SW N ATLC WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE THE STRONGEST...IN COMBINATION WITH BUILDING COMBINED SEAS UNDER LARGE ELY FETCH. SW N ATLC...UPDATED A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA MOVES W. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE PRESENT BETWEEN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS TO THE FAR SW WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. SEVERAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH ASCAT PASSES FROM LATE LAST NIGHT SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 KT TO THE S OF 25N E OF 70W...AND ALSO S OF 24N W OF 70W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND THOSE BETWEEN THE BAHAMANIAN ISLANDS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LIFT N TO ALONG 31N BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO N OF THE AREA SUN THROUGH TUE. THE SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED IN ABOVE SECTION UNDER CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN. EASTERLY WINDS OF 20 KT TO POSSIBLY 25 KT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN E SWELL AS ADVERTISED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE THE SOUTHERN WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NOGAPS STRONGLY AGREE THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE