000 AGXX40 KNHC 160729 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE AREA SHOW RATHER LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY FROM THE E-SE...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION WHERE WINDS ARE SE TO S IN LIGHT SLY RETURN FLOW. LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS REVEALED LOW SEAS THROUGHOUT A TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF ROUGHLY ALONG 89W S OF 26N IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. AN SCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0330 UTC LAST NIGHT INDICATED A WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO E W OF THE TROUGH AND E TO SE TO THE E OF THE TROUGH IT. ASIDE FROM CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF TODAY...AND IN THEN IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SW GULF ZONE AND SE PORTION OF THE NW GULF ZONE THIS EVENING AND SAT MORNING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE THE TROUGH THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE SAT AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS. THE REGIONAL NAM FROM 00 UTC LAST NIGHT IS THE OUTLIER INDICATING THAT A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER THE NW WATERS TONIGHT...AND BEGINS TO TRACK NW AND N SAT EVENING INTO SUN AND REACHES THE NE TEXAS COAST SUN NIGHT. WILL DISCOUNT THIS SOLN FOR NOW AND GO WITH CONSENSUS WITH REGARDS TO TRACK AND ULTIMATE OUTCOME OF THE LOW. A 1018 MB HIGH PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 28N93W WITH WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS OR SO...THEN BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE NEAR 26N/27N. THE RIDGE WILL THEN LIFT N OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO MON. ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR SE PORTION LATE SUN INTO MON...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE E GULF S OF ABOUT 27N MON...AND INTO MIDDLE GULF TO NEAR 90W BY TUE AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER SURGE OF INCREASING E TO SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH DUE TO THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ATLC RIDGING NE OF THE AREA AND THE TROUGH. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ZONES UNDER BROAD LOW PRES SUSTAINED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH ROUGHLY ALONG 83W FROM 12N TO 18N AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CUBA WITH A TROUGH SE TO 17N76W. A TROPICAL IS ALONG 67W S OF 16N MOVING W 13 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LARGE CLUSTERS OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO THE S OF 14N AND W OF 71W. THE WAVE IS PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR 72W EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN TO NEAR 76W SAT EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE AREA OF BROAD LOW PRES LATER ON SAT NIGHT AS IT ADVANCES FURTHER INTO THE WESETRN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THE TIGHTEST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA W OF ABOUT 70W THROUGH SUN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE AREA ALONG 49W IS FORECAST TO APPROACH 55W SAT AND MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUN THEN THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. MEANWHILE A TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NE TO 22N58W WILL SHIFT NW OF TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE FAR SE WATERS OF THE SW N ATLC INTO TONIGHT. ASCAT DATA FROM NEAR 0200 UTC ALONG BUOY REPORTS NOTED A SWATH OF NE 20 KT WINDS W OF THE TROUGH WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. E OF THE TROUGH...E-SE WINDS OF 15 KT ARE OCCURRING. A TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC SUN...AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON...REACHING THE CENTRAL PORTION TUE. THIS WAVE WILL FOLLOWED BY INCREASING LATE MON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF EASTERLY 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-12 FT EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION. SW N ATLC... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OFF OF THE SE U.S. COAST AND IS HELPING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FIRING UP OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. THESE FEATURES WILL DRIFT TO THE W DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS ALONG 28N AND WILL SHIFT N TO ALONG 30N TONIGHT THEN TO ALONG 31N FRI AND SAT AND THEN FINALLY N OF THE AREA SUN AND MON. LATEST WINDSAT AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION THROUGH SUN. EASTERLY WINDS OF 20 KT ALONG WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN E SWELL E OF THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT SAT AND SUN AS THE RIDGE RETREATS N OF THE AREA. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ENTER THE SE PORTION LATE SUN MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF EASTERLY 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-11 FT EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY