000 AGXX40 KNHC 141747 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1019 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 27N85W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 27N. MORNING BUOY OBS INDICATED SE-S WINDS OF 15-20 KT IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE FAR NW GULF WATERS ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE N...REACHING TO ALONG 28N TONIGHT THROUGH THU THEN WILL MOVE JUST N OF THE GULF WATERS FRI. A TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING OVER S FLORIDA AND FAR WESTERN CUBA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SE GULF WATERS TONIGHT DISSIPATING BY THU NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OUT AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO E MEXICO. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. NAM20 MODEL STILL INDICATING DIURNALLY DRIVEN N-NE WINDS OF 20 KT S OF 22N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT THU EVENING. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODEL DATA BRING A TROUGH INTO THE NW GULF WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT DISSIPATING OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF SAT NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD ALONG 27N ON SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING THEN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU AND W CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT BEFORE MOVING INLAND INTO CENTRAL AMERICA SUN. A MORNING WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED NE-E 20 KT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 1009 MB LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ATLC RIDGING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. NE-E WINDS TO 20 KT WILL EXPAND TO THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WESTWARD WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN LATE SAT AND SUN AS THE WAVE MOVES W OF THE AREA. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS WELL E OF THE AREA ALONG 42W AND WILL MOVE W AND INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SAT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SAT AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUN. MEANWHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ON THU EXITING THE AREA INTO THE SW N ATLC ZONE FRI NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS WITH 15-20 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF 18N. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 8-11 FT WITH AN EXPANDING EASTERLY FETCH. ANOTHER TROUGH MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-12 FT. SW N ATLC... A TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FEATURE MOVES W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRESENT JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AND IS HELPING TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE W TONIGHT. ATLC SURFACE RIDGING LIES ALONG 28N AND WILL SHIFT TO THE N TO ALONG 30N THU THEN TO ALONG 31N FRI AND SAT BEFORE MOVING JUST N OF THE AREA SUN. E-SE WINDS AROUND 20 KT WILL PERSIST S OF 25N EXPANDING TO THE N TO 27N FRI WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN EASTERLY SWELL E OF THE BAHAMAS. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CARRYING IT INTO THE SE PORTION ON FRI THEN OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA SAT AND OVER CUBA TOWARD THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN. ANOTHER TROUGH MAY ENTER THE SE PORTION LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY