000 AGXX40 KNHC 131835 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS VALID 15 UTC DEPICTS A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N84W WITH A WEAK RIDGE NW TO 28N93W. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT S-SW WINDS THROUGHOUT ...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION W OF 94W WHERE RETURN SLY FLOW IS KEEPING S-SW WINDS ARE S-SW IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT. SEAS ARE LOW...IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 FT OVER THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF...AND 3-5 FT IN THE WESTERN GULF...EXCEPT FOR N OF 25N W OF 94W WHERE SEAS THERE ARE MAXING OUT AT 7 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN A DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE SHIFT N TO ALONG 28N WED THROUGH THU...AND TO JUST N OF THE GULF FRI AND SAT BEFORE SLIDING BACK S TO NEAR 26N BY SUN AFTERNOON. MODELS...FOR THE MOST PART...DEPICT AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM E TO W ACROSS THE AREA THU THROUGH SAT BEFORE IT DAMPENS OUT OVER THE FAR WESTERN ON DAY 5 FT. LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL RUN IS RATHER LIGHT WITH WINDS MUCH LIKE THE PARALLEL VERSION. THE ECMWF FROM 00 UTC LOOKS SIMILAR...SO WILL HOLD WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT FOR THE EASTERN GULF FOR FRI AND SAT AND DECREASE THEM TO 10-15 KT SAT AFTERNOON AND SUN AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER INTO THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF. DIURNALLY DRIVEN 20 KT NE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH EVENING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THU NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A STRONG N CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A TOPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 16N MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FRI THROUGH SUN AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THOSE WATERS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU BEFORE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY THU EVENING. THE WAVE WILL THEN MOVING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI...AND SHOULD REACH NEAR 70W BY SAT...AND TO NEAR EASTERN CUBA AND EASTERN JAMAICA BY SUN AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A RATHER SHARP WIND SHIFT WITH THIS WAVE WITH AN INCREASE OF THE PRES GRADIENT AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA...BUT MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA. ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A RATHER BROAD SWATH OF NE TO E 20 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THESE WATERS N OF 15N IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEA STATE ANALYSIS REVEALED MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS OF 9-10 FT IN SMALL POCKET IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N78W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION WITH THE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC LATE SAT...AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THOSE WATERS SUN. SW N ATLC... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION IS HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS S OF 26N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WHILE A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO S FLORIDA. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS S FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THE RIDGE WILL LIFT N TO NEAR 29N TONIGHT INTO WED...THEN FURTHER N TO ALONG 31N WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE TO PASS APPROACH 65W S OF 26N ON FRI...APPROACH 70W/71W ON SAT...THEN PERHAPS MOVE INTO THE SE AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON SUN. LASTED MOISTURE PROGS FOCUS IN ON A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ALONG AND E OF THE WAVE WITH AN INCREASE IN ELY WINDS TO THE NE AND E OF OF THE WAVE AXIS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN WAVE AND THE ATLC RIDGE. WINDS ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE ON THE RATHER WEAK SIDE FROM AN E TO SE DIRECTION...EXCEPT W OF THE WAVE WHERE WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE NE-E. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE