000
AGXX40 KNHC 111720
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR NE GULF WATERS WITH A LINE OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING TO THE SE TOWARD W CENTRAL 
FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE WILL DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN 
END OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE 
MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE 
IN THE E PACIFIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE WAVE WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE 1016 MB HIGH 
PRES CENTERED NEAR 26N86W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH 
TUE WITH A RIDGE ALONG 26N ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. THE 
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE N LATE TUE REACHING ALONG 28N 
EARLY WED THEN TO ALONG 29N/30N THU. MEANWHILE A TROPICAL WAVE 
CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDING TO THE N OVER 
HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE TO THE W-NW OVER CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA DURING THE WEEK. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVE 
AND RIDGE TO THE N WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO 
BE FUNNELED INTO THE SE GULF WATERS WITH WINDS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE 
IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA/OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE WED THROUGH 
FRI. ALSO NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W/84W NOW MOVING 
INLAND OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AND MOVING INTO THE 
GULF OF HONDURAS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED ON IR SATELLITE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE W. THE 
WAVE WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA BY MON NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE IS TO 
THE E IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W. MINIMAL SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED WITH THIS WAVE MAINLY S OF 15N. THE 
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE THEN INLAND OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA WED. LATEST ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER 
PASSES INDICATED EASTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT MAINLY OVER THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 15-20 KT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. COMBINED 
SEAS ARE RUNNING 8-12 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS DUE TO A 
PERSISTENT AND LONG EASTERLY FETCH OVER THE BASIN. THE STRONGEST 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT TUE NIGHT AND WED THROUGH THE 
END OF THE WEEK WHILE NO ADDITIONAL WAVES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE 
CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY FRI. 

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE OCCURRING N 
OF 17N ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE. 
THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE INCREASING TO 20-25 KT TUE 
NIGHT THROUGH WED. AS A RESULT COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-12 
FT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS DIMINISH BACK TO 
15-20 KT THU AND FRI. MEANWHILE A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL 
APPROACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THU THEN WILL APPROACH THE 
LESSER ANTILLES FRI.

SW N ATLC...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED IN THE FAR NW WATERS NEAR THE 
GEORGIA AND FLORIDA ATLC COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING THERE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS HELPING TO 
MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 70W AND 
72W. OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGING IS BUILDING SW EXTENDING FROM 
31N55W TO 27N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND BECOME ORIENTED ALONG 27N 
TONIGHT THEN WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE N TO ALONG 28N THEN TO 
ALONG 30N/31N WED THROUGH EARLY FRI. MEANWHILE A TROPICAL WAVE 
OVER HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE TO THE W-NW OVER CUBA AND INTO THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH MID WEEK. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL 
BE PRESENT S OF 24N BETWEEN THE WAVE AND RIDGE WITH EASTERLY 
WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE WATERS. WINDS 
WILL INCREASE AND EXPAND TO THE W-NW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWING 
FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 7-10 FT S OF 24N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 
4-7 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS.

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER LEWITSKY