000 AGXX40 KNHC 030727 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 03 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SHOW 15-20 KT OF WIND N OF THE 1013 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 28N87W. OBSERVATION SITE SGOF1...THE TYNDALL AIR FORCE BASE TOWER...HAS AN ANEMOMETER HEIGHT OF 35.1 METERS WHERE IT WAS REPORTING WINDS 31 KT AT 0500 UTC WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER HAS MOVED TO THE SW OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS SW MOTION SAT. THERE IS DECIDEDLY BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE NUMERICAL MODELS ON THE FATE OF THE LOW...WITH ALL OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE CARRYING IT NW INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI OR SE LOUISIANA MON. THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT NOW ONLY DEEPENS THE LOW TO 1011 MB SUN BEFORE WEAKENING IT AS IT MOVES NW AWAY FROM THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FOUND OVER THE ATLC THAT SUPPORTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE LOW. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERALLY SEEN IN ALL OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK. EVEN THE ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN THE WEAKEST SOLUTION...SHOWS A 1011 MB FRONTAL WAVE SUN. THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER FLORIDA OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT...LEAVING A WARM FRONT TO CREEP NORTHWARD WITH THE LOW INTO THE NE AND CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NE GULF SAT THROUGH MON BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON MOVING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE S CENTRAL AND SW GULF OF MEXICO MON EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON WED. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GULF WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND NOW CARRIES A MORE ELONGATED LOW CENTER OVER THE SW GULF ON WED. GIVEN THE TREND IN THE ECMWF AWAY A CLOSED LOW LEVEL SURFACE WIND SOLUTION AND THE APPARENT CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SEEN E OF THE LOW CENTER IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH DRIVES THE WINDS TO GALE FORCE BY WED AS IT DROPS 3.87 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 6 HR PERIOD...THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS. A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 00Z PARALLEL GFS RUN WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST. BOTH OF THESE MODELS DEVELOP AN ELONGATED LOW PRES SYSTEM BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD WED NIGHT AND KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE N SIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE SW GULF TO 25 KT. SW N ATLC... THE 0302 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20-25 KT WINDS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST WITH BUOY 41012 CONFIRMING THESE CONDITIONS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KT HERE THROUGH THE DAY SAT AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ALONG 28N W OF 70W. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS N OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. THE WEAKENED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG 27N-28N INTO MON. THE OPERATIONAL GFS DEVELOPS A 1012 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 28N73W MON MORNING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS. NONE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE WW3 WERE DISCOUNTED BECAUSE OF THEIR OUTLIER SOLUTIONS. THE REST OF THE MODELS AGREE ON ALLOWING THE DEEP LAYER LOW WELL N OF THE AREA BUT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY BREAK AWAY FROM THE MID LEVEL ENERGY TO ITS S. THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NW TOWARD THE NE FLORIDA COAST TUE AND WED. THE FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND PARALLEL GFS SOLUTIONS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC... AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0300 UTC CAPTURED AN AREA OF 20-25 KT E WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W S OF 14W. AS THIS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NW OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HRS...EXPECT THIS AREA OF WINDS TO ALSO SHIFT NW. AS MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE GFS AND CMC DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ON THE N END OF THE WAVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY TUE. AS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE PREFERRED SOLUTION IS WEAKER THAN THESE SCENARIOS AND IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS PARALLEL. EVEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...THE OPERATIONAL GFS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE BY DEVELOPING GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS TO 14 FT S OF JAMAICA BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS SAT NIGHT. HIGHEST SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 12 FT WITH WINDS TO 30 KT...NOT MUCH STRONGER THAN WHAT IS ALREADY BEING EXPERIENCED NEAR THE WAVE. THE NEXT WAVE IS CURRENTLY E OF THE AREA ALONG 46W AND SHOULD ENTER THE EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE LATER TODAY AND PASS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MON...REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED. AS IT DOES...IT WILL ENHANCE NE TO E TRADES. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER