000 AGXX40 KNHC 301903 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 303 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... HURRICANE ALEX CENTERED NEAR 24.4N 96.2W AT 1800 UTC WITH MAX WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 75 KT. QUICKLY EXPANDING WAVE FIELD WAS SPREAD WELL AWAY FROM CENTER OF ALEX IN PAST 24 HOURS AND WILL AFFECT ALL BUT FAR E WITH SEAS 8 FT AND GREATER THROUGH TONIGHT. AS ALEX MOVES INLAND OVERNIGHT STRONG SELY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH THU MORNING THEN SHIFT W TO ACROSS THE W HALF THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SEA IN EXCESS OF 8 FT W OF 88W THROUGH THU. S-SE FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TOWARD SW LOUISIANA IS GENERATING SLY SWELL THAT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE N GULF COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THU...TO THE BIG BEND REGION...AND WILL MIX WILL LONG PERIOD SW SWELL OF 12 SECONDS AND GREATER TO MAINTAIN SEAS IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THU EVENING BEFORE ABATING. THIS LONG PERIOD ENERGY WILL PRODUCE BREAKERS ALONG THE SHORE LINES AND COMPOUND BEACH OPERATIONS. ATLANTIC... SURFACE TROUGH IN THE ATLC FROM 30N-25N ALONG 73W AND UPPER LOW JUST TOT HE W CONTINUES TO CREATE A WEAKNESS AND HOLD OFF ATLC RIDGE TO THE E. MODELS FORECASTING A WEAK FRONT TO DROP INTO THE NW WATERS BY 48 HOURS AND THEN SLIDE SE. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...WITH ABOUT 6 DEGREES SEPARATION BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF AT 72 HOURS. STRONG WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN TODAY WILL SPREAD FRESHENING TRADES ACROSS S AND SE SECTIONS AND GREATER ANTILLES NEXT FEW DAYS...RAISING SEAS TO 5-6 FT THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS BY 48 HOURS. N PORTION OF THIS WAVE HAS FRACTURED AWAY AND IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING SQUALLS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN AND WATERS TO THE N. THIS WILL SHIFT WNW THEN NW NEXT 48 HOURS AND COULD REACH CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY FRI MORNING. MAJOR WIND SURGE BEHIND THIS TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND WILL PRODUCE E-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT TONIGHT THROUGH THU BEFORE GRADUALLY ABATING INTO THE WEEKEND. ELY SWELL WILL HIT THE ISLANDS AND CARIB PASSAGES. CARIBBEAN... STRONG SELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS ALEX MOVES NW...AND NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW THE CURRENT 20-25 KT EARLY THU...AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE TO BELOW 20 KT EARLY FRI. A MAJOR WIND SURGE AND ASSOCIATED ELY TRADE WIND SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN NEXT FEW DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG ABOUT 64W. LOOK FOR 20-25 KT ELY WINDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING AND SHIFT WWD ACROSS THE BASIN...BUILDING SEAS TO 6-8 FT E OF 70W BY THU MORNING...7-9 FT BETWEEN 70 AND 80W...AND THEN BUILDING FURTHER TO 8-11 FT BY FRI ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIB. A LLVL PERTURBATION TRAILING THIS WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE ITCZ ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND THEN MOVE NW ACROSS NRN S AMERICA TO PRODUCE ANOTHER SMALLER AREA OF STRONG WINDS AND MAINTAIN SEAS ABOVE 10 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB THROUGH SAT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .HURRICANE WARNING N OF 23N W OF 94W...GMZ082. .HURRICANE WARNING S OF 26.4N W OF 94.7W...GMZ080. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING