000 AGXX40 KNHC 291903 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 303 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... ALEX STILL TEETERING NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AND HAS BEGUN TO MAKE THAT FORECAST NW TURN. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY S OF THE NHC FORECAST AND THUS WILL AFFECT WAVE MODEL OUTPUT. WIND FIELD CURRENTLY ACROSS N AND NE GULF MORE ELY THAN SE AND THUS WAVE FIELD WILL END UP BROADER N AND NW THAN TO THE NE. ALEX FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND WED NIGHT WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS LINGERING ACROSS FAR W WATERS THROUGH THU MORNING BEFORE FADING TO 25 KT AND LESS. FRESH SELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W AND SW GULF THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY DROPPING TO 20 KT AND LESS. SEE MIAOFFNT4 FOR DETAILS ON WIND AND SEA RADII ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX. AT THIS POINT I AM NOT BUYING INTO THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE NE GULF FRI BY THE GFS. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC E TO 55W... SURFACE TROUGH IN THE ATLC FROM 30N-23N ALONG 72ISH WILL DRIFT NW AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...ALLOWING ATLC HIGH TO BUILD WSW INTO FLORIDA AND AREA WATERS. MODERATE E TO SE TRADES TO RETURN TO S PORTIONS AND SE BAHAMAS BY 48 HOURS WITH SEAS APPROACHING 6 FT WHILE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. A BROAD WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN AT 48 HOURS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD W INTO THE FAR SE WATERS BY 72 HOURS...AND BEYOND...BUILDING SEAS 6-8 FT...AND 8-10 FT AND LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. CARIBBEAN... STRONG SELY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS ALEX STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NW...AND NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THE CURRENT 20-30 KT UNTIL WED NIGHT...AND THEN SLOWLY FADE TO 20 KT THU. AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WED MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADES WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL AND E CARIB...FOLLOWING BY AN ENERGETIC AND RAPID MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WED NIGHT AND THU...BRINGING A BROAD ZONE OF SAL...AND FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND BUILDING SEAS. BY LATE THU INTO FRI THE WAVE WILL HAVE REACHED 75W WITH 20-30 KT WINDS TRAILING IT AND SEAS 9-10 FT AND HIGHER ACROSS A LARGE PORTIONS OF THE BASIN BEHIND THE WAVE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 26N E OF 96W...GMZ080 AND N OF 21N W OF 91W...GMZ082. HURRICANE WARNING N OF 22N W OF 92W...GMZ082. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING