000 AGXX40 KNHC 271906 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 305 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... GULF OF MEXICO WEAK RIDGE ALONG 30N IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FAR NE GULF THROUGH MON. T.D. ALEX NEARING W COAST OF YUCATAN AND FORECAST TO BEGIN TO MOVE OVER WATER THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO T.S. WITHIN 12 HOURS. CONSENSUS OF MODELS TAKES A NW TRACK FOR 36 HOURS THEN TURN MORE W-NW AND INTO MEXICO...WITH HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS. GFS BASED MODELS SHOWING A MORE NNW TRAJECTORY...EITHER SHOWING BETA AFFECT BY VORT LOBE OF SMALL TROPICAL WAVE TRAILING WAVE THAT ALEX DEVELOPED FROM...OR SOME INTERACTION WITH UPPER TROUGH ALONG SE TEXAS-S LOUISIANA. AT THIS POINT THESE HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED BUT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY IN THE 3-5 DAY RANGE. THIS BEING SAID...WWIII GUIDANCE IS NOT USEFUL FOR BEYOND 24 HOUR FORECASTS. COASTAL OFFICES SHOULD TRY TO LOOK AT WWIII OUTPUT FROM THE GFDL RUNS...THE NAH...N ATLC HURRICANE VERSION...AND MERGE THIS WITH THE WAVE FIELD FROM THE ECMWF WAVE MODEL...WHICH YOU PROBABLY DON'T HAVE EITHER. ECMWF FORECAST FOR CENTER OF ALEX MUCH CLOSER TO NHC FORECAST THAN GFS...AND THUS WAVE FIELD REPRESENTED BETTER. S-SE LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM ALEX WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE N GULF COASTAL ZONES W OF THE MOUTH OF THE MS BY 00Z WED AND THEN FARTHER E WED AFTERNOON...WITH SEA BUILDING TO 6 FT AND GREATER. ATLC W OF 55W... ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 31N THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE E-SE WINDS OF 20 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WATERS S-SW OF THE BAHAMAS/NORTH OF CUBA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH MON DUE TO THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN T.D. ALEX THE THE RIDGE. A TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY AND WILL SHIFT N-NW THROUGH 48 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH 20 KT SELY FLOW ON NE SIDE. THIS TROUGH PREVENTS RIDGE FROM BUILDING IN STRONGLY AND LIMITS TRADES TO 20 KT OR LESS. CARIBBEAN... STRONG SELY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE W CARIB AND NW CENTRAL TO NEAR 15N72W AS ALEX CONTINUES WITH A RATHER TIGHT INNER CIRCULATION AND BROAD LLVL FLOW. SEAS WERE 12-14 FT OFF SE COAST OF YUCATAN THIS MORNING...AND 8-10 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FAR NW CARIB. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN OR SEA HEIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH 24-36 HOURS AS ALEX MOVES NW AND STRENGTHENS OVER WATER...AND GRADIENT REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG FLOW...UP TO 30 KT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. VERY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W CARIB W OF 82W ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE E OF ALEX THROUGH MON NIGHT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 23N E OF 94W...GMZ082. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING