000 AGXX40 KNHC 160703 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... 1018 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 27N87W IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER THROUGH THE PERIOD OCCASIONALLY BEING ABSORBED IN AN ATLC RIDGE BUILDING W-NW ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE N CENTRAL GULF. OTHERWISE SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS WILL MOVE SE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA CLIPPING THE FAR NE GULF WATERS OCCASIONALLY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A WEAK HIGH CENTER RE-DEVELOPING IN THE N CENTRAL GULF AND BEING SEPARATED FROM THE ATLC RIDGE. A TROUGH IN THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 94W REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO FLARE UP NEAR ITS AXIS. A 0354 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CONTINUED TO SHOW EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W AND INTO CENTRAL MEXICO LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE DIURNALLY DRIVEN NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR EACH EVENING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO FLARE UP S OF 18N. OBSERVATIONS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS CONTINUE TO INDICATE E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL SURGES TO 25 KT. EASTERLY TRADES OF 15-20 KT ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TODAY AS ATLC RIDGING STRENGTHENS N OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THESE TRADES WILL THEN DIMINISH IN THE E CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH (THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW DESCRIBED BELOW) MOVES NW THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE ATLC RIDGE. 1013 MB LOW PRES NEAR 14.3N48.7W IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME FOR CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST NOW ONLY CALLS FOR A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW IS NEARING A MUCH MORE HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING S-SW SHEAR AND DRY AIR ALOFT. THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NW AS A TROUGH BY 24 HOURS...ENTERING THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT N OF 15N. THE TROUGH WILL DEPART TO THE NW AND INTO THE SW N ATLC FRI NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC BETWEEN ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA AND AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. 15-20 KT WINDS WILL THUS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT DUE TO A LENGTHENING EASTERLY FETCH OF 20 KT WINDS. SW N ATLC... A TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE SE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA COAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FIRING UP AHEAD OF IT. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO ATLC RIDGING LATER THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT HAS DIPPED JUST S OF 31N IN THE NE CORNER OF THE WATERS FROM 31N65W TO 30N68W TO 31N71W. THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE NORTHERN EXTENT PROGRESSES TO THE E ALONG 30N. MEANWHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED ATLC RIDGING WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY ALONG 27N/28N THROUGH FRI WHILE ADDITIONAL WEAK TROUGHS SKIRT ACROSS 30N/31N FROM THE SE U.S. COAST. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR SE WATERS FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND WILL THEN MOVE MORE WESTWARD TOWARD CUBA BY SUN. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT NEAR THE TROUGH AND S OF THE RIDGE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY