000 AGXX40 KNHC 010753 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 355 AM EDT TUE JUN 01 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK RIDGE ALONG 27N MAINTAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE OVER ENTIRE GULF THROUGH TUE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHT FOR MOST OF ZONES. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS STRENGTHENING OF SURFACE TROUGH OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA...REMNANTS OF AGATHA WHICH COULD DRIFT NW INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INCREASE WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN GULF ZONE WED AND THU. MODEL GUIDANCE TURN TROUGH N AND NE BY THU...BUT HIGH PRES RIDGE MAY BLOCK TURN AND ENHANCE DISSIPATION OF TROUGH. SW N ATLC... WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER FAR SE WATERS EXTENDS FROM JUST N OF PUERTO RICO NE TO 20N65W. THERE STILL REMAIN A TIGHT GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRES CENTER 1023 MB AT 31N68W PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY BREEZE S OF 24N E OF 75W. ELSEWHERE RIDGE CLAIMS ITS DOMINANCE OVER REMAINING OF BASIN WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE E TO SE BREEZE N OF 25N. MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT OF A WEAKNESS FORMING IN PRES FIELD. LARGE DIFFERENCE IN POSITION AND TIMING OF WEAK TROUGH. NAM AND EUROPEAN AGREE ON POSITION JUST N OF PUERTO RICO THU WHILE CANADIAN AND GFS FORM IT W AND E OF THIS RESPECTIVELY AND WITH DELAYED TIMING. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD TROUGH WITH FRESH TO STRONG SE BREEZE STARTING WED NIGHT. BY FRI RIDGE SHIFT ITS AXIS E OF BASIN AND FRESH S BREEZE HUGS BAHAMA ISLANDS AND E FLORIDA COAST. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN... REMNANTS OF AGATHA STILL LINGER OFF E COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MINOR BUT DEEP CONVECTION STILL NOTED W OF 85W. WEAK TROUGH MOVES W-NW OVER TO W COAST OF YUCATAN THEN STALLS THU AND COULD DRIVE A FRESH S BREEZE INTO CENTRAL GULF ZONE. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT STEERING CURRENTS MAKES IT HARD TO PINPOINT WHAT AREA IN THE GULF COULD BE AFFECTED...BUT CENTRAL SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W MOVE W AT 15 KT CROSS REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN FRI. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WAVE ALONG 58W ENTER EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE E WINDS ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE WED AND THU. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES