000 AGXX40 KNHC 301849 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK RIDGE ALONG 26N AND E OF 93W WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5-10 KT JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MON. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS...ALONG FROM THOSE FROM OIL PLATFORMS AND FROM A FEW SHIPS SHOWED WIND DIRECTIONS MAINLY S-SW TO THE N OF 26N...AND SE-S TO THE S OF 26N WITH E-SE WINDS IN THE SW ZONE. LATEST SEASTATE ANALYSIS REVEALED SEAS OF 1-2 FT THROUGHOUT WITH A VERY SMALL POCKET OF 3 FOOT SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. THE RIDGE WILL BE REINFORCED SOME BY THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF HIGH PRES IN THE ATLC CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA LATER ON MON AND INTO WED. AS THIS HAPPENS SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN WINDS IN THE SW ZONE...AND IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN ZONES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEAS THERE. BY LATE WED AND INTO FRI...MODELS PRETTY MUCH AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE RETREATING E TOWARDS THE ATLC...WHICH APPEARS ATTRIBUTED TO RESIDUAL TROUGHING THAT MOVES N FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM WHAT WAS THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM AGATHA PRESENTLY SITUATED OVER THE W PART OF GUATEMALA. GFS GUIDANCE HAD VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT LATEST 12 UTC RUN IS MUCH TONED DOWN AND RESEMBLING MORE OF THE CONSERVATIVE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CANADIAN WHICH DEVELOPS A CLOSED CIRCULATION OFF THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TUE AND MOVES NE INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MIDDLE GULF WED AND QUICKLY NE INTO THE EASTERN GULF THU TO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THU. WILL DISCOUNT THIS SOLN...AS FOR NOW THE BEST APPROACH FOR THIS POSSIBLE SITUATION AS IT RELATES TO THIS FORECAST IS TO FORECAST A TROUGH FOR FOR DAYS 3-5 INCREASING THE WINDS SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF INCLUDING YUCATAN CHANNEL AND VICINITY OF YUCATAN PENINSULA. WILL THEN EVALUATE WHAT FUTURE MODEL RUNS DEPICT WITH RESPECT TO THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO IN TERMS OF CONSISTENCY WITH FEATURE EVOLUTION...IF ANY AND ASSOCIATED IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. SW N ATLC... A TROUGH OVER THE FAR SE WATERS EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE AREA...AND CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND SW INTO THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA. RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWED E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS W OF 72W...EXCEPT E-SE 5-10 KT SW OF THE BAHAMAS AND NE-E WINDS OF 15 KT E OF 72W. SEAS RANGED IN HEIGHTS FROM 3-5 FT W OF 68W...EXCEPT 1-2 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS TO 5-7 FT E OF 68W. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT WEAKENS PULLING AWAY MUCH OF THE SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT HAD BEEN PLAGUING THOSE OVERS OVER THE PAST 48-72 HRS. A RIDGE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISH ALONG 31N THROUGH LATE TUE...THEN WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LATEST MODELS AGAIN SUGGEST THAT A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK INTO THE SE PORTION WITH A NE TO SE WIND SHIFT...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS IT THEN ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE INTO FRI. WILL BE GENERAL IN DESCRIBING THIS FEATURE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN... TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM NEAR THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NEAR CENTRAL PANAMA IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. A FEW BUOY REPORTS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING POINTED OUT RELATIVELY LIGHT SE-S WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND PRETTY MUCH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND IT...WITH SW-W WINDS OF 10 KT OVER THE AREA BEHIND S OF 17N AND W TO ABOUT 79W. A VERY ILL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED NEAR 17N72W. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM ALONG THE N COAST OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM THERE SW TO 14N72W. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. BY MON NIGHT...THE WEAKENING TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC SW TO NW HONDURAS WHILE AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS E TO W. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TUE AND WED...AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. WITH THIS TAKING PLACE...THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND REGIME SHOULD START UP AGAIN WITH PERHAPS MORE INCREASE TO E WINDS...POSSIBLY TO 20 KT...ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE