000 AGXX40 KNHC 291853 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT SAT MAY 29 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK 1011 MB HIGH WAS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF NEAR 23N94W. THIS IS MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS OF 5-10 KT...WITH GENERALLY VARIABLE BUT MOSTLY W TO NW IN THE NW SECTION AND SLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN GULF. LATEST SEASTATE ANALYSIS ALONG WITH CURRENT AND RECENT BUOY DATA SHOWED LOW SEASTATE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 FT WITH MOSTLY 1 FOOT HEIGHTS IN THE EASTERN GULF ZONE. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF AN ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 26N CONTINUING THE PRESENT CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE OF WINDS THROUGH THE SW ZONE AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF ON MON THROUGH WED. SLY FLOW INCREASES SOME IN THE FAR WESTERN SECTION OF THE NW GULF ON THU WITH SEAS BECOMING ONLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. SW N ATLC... A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW E OF AREA NEAR 28N60W W TO 26N73W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH A TROUGH THAT REACHES FROM THE CARIBBEAN NE TO THE JUST N OF HISPANIOLA ON SUN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE MOISTURE PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH INTO MON ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS MODELS HAD SUGGESTED THAT A LOW WOULD DEVELOP OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI...THEN MOVE NE INTO THE SE PORTION. HOWEVER... LOOKING AT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS APPEARS LESS LIKELY AS CLOUDS ALONG THE CARIBBEAN MONSOON TROUGH HAVE THINNED OUT DURING THE DAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT EVIDENCE OF WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING JUST NW OF HAITI. SO WILL CONSIDER THE WEAK 1010 TO 1012 MB LOW THE MODELS INDICATE OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS THE TROUGH ITSELF THAT EXTENDS NE TO NEAR HISPANIOLA AND NE TO VERY NEAR THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH. SLY WINDS OF 15 TO AT TIMES 20 KT SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE E OF THE TROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT AS PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND HIGH PRES TO ITS E KEEP IT JUST TIGHT ENOUGH. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TROUGH SHIFTS E OF AREA TONIGHT AS A RIDGE ALIGNS ITSELF ALONG 31N TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN SLIDES S TO NEAR 27N BY WED WITH THE ATTENDANT HIGH CENTER OVER THE NE PORTION THROUGH THU WITH A RIDGE TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE QUESTIONABLE FEATURE WILL BE DURING DAYS 4 AND 5 WHEN MODELS SUGGEST THAT A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK INTO THE SE PORTION WITH A NE TO SE WIND SHIFT...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS. FOR NOW WILL BE GENERAL IN DESCRIBING THIS FEATURE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN... MONSOON TROUGH HANGS TIGHT WITH AXIS FROM HAITI TO NEAR COSTA RICA AS NOTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND IN SHIP/BUOY AND LAND OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ASCAT DATA REVEALED WIND SHIFTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WITH AN AREA OF STRONGER S 20 KT NOTED IN CLOUDS/CONNECTION WITHIN ABOUT 100 NM SSE OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TO EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC SW TO NW HONDURAS BY MON WHILE AN ATLC RIDGE SLIDES S INTO THE SW N ATLC...AND A WEAK LOW LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE MAY PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TUE AND WED...AND INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN THU. WITH ALL THIS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE...THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND REGIME SHOULD START UP AGAIN WITH PERHAPS MORE INCREASE TO E WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE