000 AGXX40 KNHC 270643 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 AM EDT THU MAY 27 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO...ATLC LOW PRES E OF N FL WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOMEWHAT DRYING TROUGHS SE THROUGH FL AND THE FAR E GULF WATERS. THE INITIAL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE FL STRAITS WHILE A SECOND TROUGH IS ALREADY EVIDENT OVER N FL AND THE EXTREME NE GULF WATERS. EXPECT THIS SECOND TROUGH TO SWEEP S TODAY AND FRI PUSHING THROUGH THE FL STRAITS ABOUT THIS TIME TOMORROW NIGHT. A POSSIBILITY OF A THIRD...BUT WEAKER TROUGH FOLLOWING FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT IT MAY FIZZLE OUT ALONG 26N SAT POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY CONVECTION. IN THE MEANTIME...A NW TO SE RIDGE FROM E CENTRAL TX TO THE FL STRAITS WILL SHIFT FURTHER A LITTLE SW AND BECOME ORIENTATED W TO E ALONG 23N FRI. A HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE W GULF SAT...SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL GULF SUN AND BE OVER THE NE GULF MON. THUS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLC...A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW AT 31N76W SEEMS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY E AT THE MOMENT. EXPECT THE LOW TO WEAKEN AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AS ITS REMNANTS PASSES NEAR BERMUDA FRI. A SERIES OF TROUGHS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CURRENTLY EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE FL STRAITS. THIS INITIAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE E REACHING THE SE BAHAMAS FRI MORNING. BY THEN A SECOND TROUGH...ALREADY ENHANCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER N FL...WILL MOVE SE TO OVER THE NW BAHAMAS WHERE IT NEARLY STALLS. A THIRD TROUGH WILL FOLLOW SAT AND MERGE WITH THE QUASI STATIONARY SECOND BOUNDARY RESULTING IN A TROUGH DISSECTING THE AREA FROM 29N55W TO 27N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS... AND PERHAPS ACROSS SE CUBA MERGING WITH A BROAD PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS SETS UP THE PATTERN FOR ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO RACE NE ACROSS CUBA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE AND SUGGESTS THIS LARGE TROUGH WILL BE PRECEDED BY SW WINDS 20-25 KT ALL THE WAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE CENTRAL ATLC AS IT PROGRESSES E SUN AND MON. WEAK FRONTAL LOW TYPE DEVELOPMENTS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE S OF CUBA IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A REINFORCED ATLC TROUGH N OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THE CORRESPONDING NW CARIBBEAN SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. AN ATLC RIDGE IS SHIFTING S WITH ITS E TO W AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG 20N TODAY AND FRI THEN RETRACT EASTWARD SAT AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLC WATERS NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. BY SUN...A WEAK TROUGH WILL MEANDER NEAR JAMAICA WITH SLY FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AND LIGHT NLY WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS. THE TROUGH MOVES E TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AND WEAKENING SLY FLOW ALL WATERS E OF THE TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 11N ALONG 70W IS LOSING CONVECTION ATTM AND WAVES FURTHER E SEEM TO REMAIN S OF 10N. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NW CARIBBEAN TROUGH...AND IF SO...ITS RAPID NE TRACK. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ 0FORECASTER NELSON