000 AGXX40 KNHC 260707 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 AM EDT WED MAY 26 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO...A NW TO SE RIDGE FROM SW LA TO FL STRAITS WILL SHIFT FURTHER SW AND BECOME W TO E ALONG 23N WITH A HIGH CENTER APPEARING NEAR 23N96W FRI THROUGH SAT. A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS WILL MERGE WITH A STRONGER TROUGH ROTATING AROUND ATLC LOW PRES AND THE COMBINED TROUGH WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS E OF 85W TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT... AND A SECOND TROUGH WILL FOLLOW ON FRI. GUIDANCE HINTING AT A THIRD TROUGH LEFT BEHIND OVER THE E GULF ON SUN. BUT IN ANY EVENT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. ATLC...A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW AT 31N74W IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER TODAY THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE E WITH WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE LOW PASSING NEAR BERMUDA FRI. NOTE THAT THE TIMING OF THIS EVENT HAS BEEN CHANGING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AND MOVE AS FAR S AS THE SE BAHAMAS BUT MOSTLY ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT WIND SHIFT. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT E OF 65W ITS LAST TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SW MAY STALL ALONG 27N AS A RIDGE BUILDS W ACROSS FL AND THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO IS GUIDANCE BUILDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN RETRACTS THE RIDGE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ALLOWING A WEAKENING TROUGH OVER THE SE BAHAMAS TO SUDDENLY MOVE E FRI. GUIDANCE IS VERY AGGRESSIVE THEREAFTER AND SUGGESTS THIS SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL BE PRECEDED BY SW WINDS 20-25 KT ALL THE WAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N50W. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE S OF CUBA IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY S WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SW OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL WAVES NOW EXTENDS N TO ABOUT 11N WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 73W AND THUS DENOTED ON GRAPHICAL PACKAGE JUST RELEASED. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ 0FORECASTER NELSON