000
AGXX40 KNHC 210649
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
250 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W

GULF OF MEXICO...AN E-W RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO 
IS SUPPORTING SE RETURN FLOW AT 15-20 KT OVER NW PORTION TILL 
EARLY TUE. BY THEN THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES OVER 
THE N CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS A LOW 
PRES DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND HOW GRADIENT W OF 
LOW WILL EFFECT WINDS IN FL STRAITS. FOR NOW EXPECT NE-E WINDS 
TO PULSE AT 15-20 KT FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

ATLC...GRADIENT BETWEEN A N-S TROUGH OVER THE W BAHAMAS AND AN 
E-W RIDGE LYING S OF BERMUDA WILL INCREASE ELY WINDS 20-30 KT 
OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AND FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE 
SUN AND SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING OVER WATERS N OF 27N 
BETWEEN 70W AND 60W. THE LOW WILL MOVE NNE THROUGH EARLY TUE 
WHEN IT SHOULD PASS N OF 31N...THEREAFTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE 
LOW MOVES WNW TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS.

TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...ATLC RIDGE N OF AREA IS WEAKENING
AS LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MOVES N ALONG ROUGHLY 70W 
RESULTING IN DIMINISHING ELY TRADES. TRADES ACROSS ENTIRE 
TROPICS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 KT ON SAT. THE UNCERTAINTY IS 
BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN MAY SPAWN A LOW LEVEL 
CYCLONE WITH ELY WINDS INCREASING TO ABOUT 20 KT OVER ITS NE 
SEMICIRCLE. CONVECTION COULD BE AN ISSUE IN W CARIBBEAN OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.  A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
COLOMBIA WITH SOME CYCLONIC TURNING AS FAR N AS 11N80W...WAVE IS 
MOVING SLOWLY W AND MAY STILL SEE SOME INFLUENCE EXTREME SW 
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. A WAVE SETTING OFF CONVECTION 
S OF 10N ALONG 55W SHOULD MOVE INLAND S AMERICA BY LATE SAT. A 
THIRD WAVE S OF 10N ALONG 35W TODAY WILL REACH ALONG 55W AROUND 
SUNSET TUE.      

WARNINGS...
ATLC...
.NONE. GALE CONDITIONS  EXPECTED N OF 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 60W 
SUN-MON.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER NELSON